板块依旧分化，玻纯表现偏强

Report Industry Investment Rating - The medium - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [7] Core View of the Report - In the off - season, the fundamentals of the black industry have limited bright spots, and prices are under pressure. Glass and soda ash prices rebounded from low levels due to supply - side disturbances. As the Central Economic Work Conference approaches, there may be positive news from the macro and policy fronts. Attention should be paid to the potential for short - term upward movements driven by improved macro sentiment [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month, with reduced shipments from Australia and Brazil and increased shipments from non - mainstream mines. Port stocks increased, steel mills' imported ore inventories decreased, and the demand for restocking has not been significantly released. Iron water production decreased month - on - month, and steel mills' profitability declined. The short - term iron ore price is expected to oscillate [3]. - The supply of scrap steel increased while demand remained stable. After the price decline, its cost - effectiveness improved, and the downside space is limited. The scrap steel price is expected to oscillate [3] Carbon Element - After profit recovery and relaxation of environmental protection measures, coke supply stabilized. In the short term, the rigid demand from steel mills remained strong, and the total inventory remained low. However, the cost support for spot goods continued to weaken, and the market expected price cuts. The coke futures price is expected to oscillate following coking coal [3]. - Domestic coking coal supply remained low, and its fundamentals have not significantly weakened. After the spot price correction, there is still an expectation of restocking for winter storage. The near - term futures contracts are affected by delivery, and the price is expected to oscillate. The far - term contracts are undervalued, and the fundamentals strongly support the price [3] Alloys - The cost of ferromanganese silicon provides support, but the market supply and demand remain loose, and the upward pressure on prices is significant. The futures price is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [6]. - The firm cost supports the bottom of the ferrosilicon price, but the market supply and demand are still loose, suppressing the upward price space. The futures price is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [6] Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of supply disruptions for glass, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, high inventories will suppress prices; otherwise, prices may rise. The soda ash price is close to the cost, with obvious bottom support. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the supply surplus will intensify, and the price center will decline [6]. Specific Products - Steel: In the off - season, demand is weakening, and the steel inventory is higher than the same period last year. The short - term futures price is expected to oscillate at a low level [8]. - Iron Ore: Iron water production decreased month - on - month, and the profitability continued to decline. The short - term ore price is expected to oscillate [9]. - Scrap Steel: The supply increased while demand remained stable. The price is expected to oscillate [11]. - Coke: Supply increased as profits improved, and cost support weakened. The futures price is expected to oscillate following coking coal [12]. - Coking Coal: The fundamentals marginally weakened, and the futures and spot prices are under pressure. The near - term contracts are expected to oscillate, and the far - term contracts are expected to oscillate strongly [13]. - Glass: Affected by the expected price increase from manufacturers, the sales improved. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, prices will be under pressure; otherwise, they may rise [14]. - Soda Ash: The price is close to the cost, with obvious bottom support. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the supply surplus will intensify, and the price center will decline [16]. - Ferromanganese Silicon: The cost provides support, but the supply and demand are loose, and the futures price is expected to operate at a low level [17]. - Ferrosilicon: The cost supports the bottom, but the supply and demand are loose, and the futures price is expected to operate at a low level [18]