格林大华期货早盘提示：国债-20251128

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond market is "oscillation" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The latest macro - economic data shows that stabilizing growth remains the main theme of the macro - economy in the fourth quarter. The short - term trend of treasury bond futures may be oscillatory, and trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Conditions - On Thursday, most of the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened roughly flat, with the 30 - year contract opening lower. By the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2603 fell 0.01%, the 10 - year T2603 fell 0.06%, the 5 - year TF2603 fell 0.01%, and the 2 - year TS2603 rose 0.01%. The Wind All - A Index opened slightly higher, rose in the morning session and then declined, continued to oscillate and decline in the afternoon, closing down 0.01% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 1.72 trillion yuan, a slight decline from 1.80 trillion yuan in the previous trading day [1][2] Important Information - Open Market: On Thursday, the central bank conducted 356.4 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 300 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net investment of 56.4 billion yuan [1] - Funding Market: On Thursday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank funding market remained low. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.31% throughout the day, the same as the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 was 1.45%, down from 1.47% in the previous trading day [1] - Cash Bond Market: On Thursday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds mostly increased compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of the 2 - year treasury bond decreased by 0.25 BP to 1.43%, the 5 - year increased by 1.01 BP to 1.63%, the 10 - year increased by 0.75 BP to 1.85%, and the 30 - year increased by 0.75 BP to 2.20% [1] - Industrial Enterprise Data: From January to October, the operating income of industrial enterprises above designated size was 113.37 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.8% (1 - 9 months: 2.4%, 2024: 2.1%); the total profit was 5950.29 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% (1 - 9 months: 3.2%, 2024: - 3.3%). In October, due to factors such as a higher base in the same period last year and a rapid increase in financial expenses, the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 5.5% year - on - year [1] - Automobile Consumption Policy: The Ministry of Commerce will promote pilot reforms in automobile circulation and consumption, expand the circulation of second - hand cars, and expand the automobile aftermarket [1] - Government Meeting: The State Council executive meeting on November 27 listened to the report on the comprehensive supervision of promoting high - quality development, arranged to promote the provincial - level overall planning of basic medical insurance, reviewed and approved the draft "Regulations on Promoting National Reading", and discussed the draft amendment to the "Certified Public Accountant Law of the People's Republic of China" [1] Market Logic - The increase in the base in the same period last year and the rapid growth of financial expenses led to a 5.5% year - on - year decline in the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in October. As of the end of October, the asset - liability ratio of industrial enterprises above designated size was 58.0%, up 0.3 percentage points year - on - year and the same as at the end of September. The average collection period of accounts receivable of manufacturing enterprises above designated size was 71.2 days, an increase of 2.8 days year - on - year and 0.8 days from the end of September [2] Trading Strategy - Trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [2]