格林大华期货早盘提示：纯苯-20251128

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pure benzene in the energy and chemical industry is "volatile" [2] Report's Core View - The price of pure benzene is expected to be volatile in the short - term, with the 03 contract reference range of 5300 - 5650 yuan/ton. Future focus should be on port arrivals and future US dollar pure benzene market transaction prices [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Thursday night, the price of the main contract futures BZ2603 dropped 16 yuan to 5436 yuan/ton. The spot price in the mainstream area of East China was 5320 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous period), and the spot price in Shandong was 5245 yuan/ton (up 8 yuan). Long positions decreased by 407 lots to 16,300 lots, and short positions increased by 116 lots to 19,100 lots [2] Important Information - Supply: In October, China's pure benzene production was 1.9363 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%. In November, the planned maintenance was 50,000 tons, with limited supply reduction. In October, the pure benzene import volume was 496,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.1%. A refinery in East China plans to overhaul a 10 - million - ton atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit and a reforming unit in January, affecting 600,000 tons of pure benzene production capacity [2] - Inventory: The total commercial inventory of the sample ports in Jiangsu was 164,000 tons, an increase of 17,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.56%; a year - on - year increase of 39,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.20%. During the statistical period, about 45,000 tons arrived, 12,000 tons were unloading and not included in the statistics, and about 28,000 tons were picked up. The visible ship arrivals in the next period are about 105,000 tons, but considering the berth unloading capacity, the expected arrival is 60,000 tons [2] - Demand: The operating rate of styrene was 68.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3%; the operating rate of phenol was 79%, a month - on - month increase of 11.4%; the operating rate of caprolactam was 88.2%, a month - on - month increase of 2.2%; the operating rate of aniline was 75.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.5%; the operating rate of adipic acid was 55.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 6.5%. Caprolactam factories have started self - disciplined production cuts, and there may be a reduction in pure benzene demand in December and January [2] - Other: A factory in Shandong plans to shut down its disproportionation unit at the beginning of December due to low disproportionation processing margins, with a monthly production decline of about 50%. The international oil price rose slightly. The ICE Brent crude oil futures 01 contract rose 0.21 dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 0.33%. The Chinese INE crude oil futures 2601 contract rose 2.3 to 445.1 yuan/barrel, and rose 6.5 to 451.6 yuan/barrel at night. The end of the US government shutdown, hawkish remarks from Fed officials and the uncertainty of the December FOMC meeting suppress the temporarily warming market sentiment [2] Market Logic - Recently, the gasoline cracking profit in Europe and the United States has declined, and the blending oil demand has weakened. The pure benzene port has accumulated inventory this week, and it is expected that the East China port will continue the inventory accumulation trend in the short - term. The operating rate of phenol in the demand side has rebounded significantly, and the weighted operating rate of downstream products has increased. The short - term price is mainly volatile [2] Trading Strategy - Adopt a short - term volatile trading mindset [2]