格林大华期货早盘提示：焦煤、焦炭-20251128

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Black (Coking Coal and Coke) Sector: Bearish [1] 2. Core View - The coking coal and coke market sentiment continues to weaken following the fundamentals. The double - coking market is waiting for the winter storage in December to potentially improve the supply - demand pattern [1] 3. Key Points from Different Aspects Market Performance - Coking coal main contract (Jm2601) closed at 1071.0, down 1.24% compared to the daytime session opening; at night on November 27, it closed at 1057.0, down 1.31% compared to the daytime session closing. Coke main contract (J2601) closed at 1607.0, down 0.74% compared to the daytime session opening; at night on November 27, it closed at 1570.0, down 2.30% compared to the daytime session closing [1] Important News - Six departments jointly issued an implementation plan to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand and promote consumption. The goal is to optimize the supply structure of consumer goods by 2027, forming 3 trillion - level consumption areas and 100 billion - level consumption hotspots [1] Auction Information - On November 11, 2025, in the auction of Qinxin lean coal in Qinxin Group, Changzhi, Shanxi, the starting price was 1480 yuan/ton, with 4000 tons sold at 1480 yuan/ton and 36000 tons unsold. The previous auction on November 26 had a starting price of 1530 yuan/ton, with 300 tons sold at 1530 yuan/ton and 2700 tons unsold. The average transaction price decreased by 50 yuan/ton [1] - On November 27, 2025, in the auction of coking coal from Zhujiazhuang Mine of Liliu Group in Lvliang, Shanxi, the starting price was 1500 yuan/ton, and 2000 tons were all sold at 1500 - 1510 yuan/ton. The previous auction on November 3 had a starting price of 1350 yuan/ton, and 3000 tons were all sold at 1600 - 1680 yuan/ton. The average transaction price decreased by 135 yuan/ton [1] Market Logic - The coking coal spot market remains weak. This week, the raw coal output of 523 mines decreased, and the inventory reached a high level. Downstream demand is mainly for on - demand procurement, with the iron - making water output decreasing by 16000 tons to 2346800 tons this week. The steel mill profitability rate dropped to 35%, a new low this year [1] Trading Strategy - For coking coal, the support level of the main contract has moved down. The support for the main contract is at 1030, and the support for the Jm2605 contract is at 1100 [1]