格林大华期货早盘提示：甲醇-20251128

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the methanol in the energy and chemical sector is "oscillating and bullish" [1] 2. Core View - The methanol futures price showed an upward trend on Thursday night, with the spot price in the East China mainstream area also rising. The market is influenced by factors such as supply, inventory, demand, and overseas news. With the news of overseas Iranian device shutdowns and port destocking, the methanol market is expected to be bullish in the short - term, and the 01 contract is expected to trade in the range of 2070 - 2160. A bullish trading strategy is recommended [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - On Thursday night, the futures price of the main methanol contract rose by 6 yuan to 2123 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the East China mainstream area rose by 17 yuan to 2105 yuan/ton. The long - position holdings decreased by 23,122 lots to 652,000 lots, and the short - position holdings increased by 39,773 lots to 784,400 lots [1] Important Information - Supply: The domestic methanol operating rate was 89.1%, a month - on - month increase of 0.37%. The overseas methanol operating rate was 73.2%, remaining flat month - on - month [1] - Inventory: The total methanol port inventory in China was 1363,500 tons, a decrease of 115,800 tons. The inventory in East China decreased by 80,300 tons, and that in South China decreased by 35,500 tons. The inventory of sample methanol production enterprises in China was 373,700 tons, an increase of 15,000 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 4.19% [1] - Demand: The signed orders of northwest methanol enterprises were 86,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1900 tons. The pending orders of sample enterprises were 230,700 tons, a decrease of 15,600 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 6.34%. The olefin operating rate was 91%, a month - on - month increase of 0.9%; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 7.8%, a month - on - month increase of 2.1%; the methyl chloride operating rate was 80%, a month - on - month increase of 2.3%; the acetic acid operating rate was 73.1%, a month - on - month increase of 3.4%; the formaldehyde operating rate was 42.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.9%; the MTBE operating rate was 69.9%, remaining flat month - on - month [1] - External Factors: The end of the US government shutdown, the hawkish remarks of Federal Reserve officials, and the uncertainty of the December FOMC meeting suppressed the temporarily warming market sentiment [1] Market Logic - According to market news, there were reports of continued shutdowns of Iranian devices overseas, with a total of 6 production lines with a capacity of 9.9 million tons shut down. This week, the ports destocked, while the production areas had a slight inventory build - up. The import volume in October was 1.612 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 13%. It is expected that 3 MTO devices will be shut down for maintenance from November to December. The methanol market will be bullishly oscillating under the influence of overseas news. Future focus should be on the port inventory destocking amplitude and the start - stop of Iranian devices [1] Trading Strategy - A bullish trading strategy is recommended [1]