Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The market shows mixed trends across various commodities, with geopolitical factors, supply - demand dynamics, and policy expectations influencing prices. Each commodity has its own unique supply - demand situation and price - influencing factors, and the overall market lacks a unified trend [2][4][21] - For financial products such as stocks and bonds, geopolitical and macro - economic factors also play important roles, and short - term caution is recommended [48][49] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - Crude Oil: Night - time international oil prices rose slightly. Market expectations for a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict are still wavering. OPEC may maintain its production policy, and the increasing expectation of a December Fed rate cut boosts oil prices [2] - Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil: The fuel oil market showed a differentiated performance overnight. High - sulfur fuel oil rose slightly with the cost of crude oil, while low - sulfur fuel oil was weak. In the future, the overall contradiction is limited, with high - sulfur fuel oil affected by geopolitical risks and low - sulfur fuel oil having sufficient supply [22] - Asphalt: The commercial inventory of asphalt is decreasing faster. The December production plan is lower year - on - year and month - on - month. The demand will decline seasonally, and the market is expected to be loose at the end of the year, putting pressure on prices [23] Metals - Precious Metals: Overnight, precious metals showed a volatile performance. The uncertainty of interest rate cuts and geopolitical prospects led to high - level oscillations. On the first day of the listing of platinum futures, the price fluctuated sharply, and attention should be paid to the strategy of shorting volatility [3] - Base Metals: - Copper: The average copper price this year was strong. Next year, the growth rate gap between supply and demand may narrow, and the price increase will be supported by factors such as liquidity and demand for green carbon and intelligent computing. Short - term, a small amount of chasing up can be attempted [4] - Aluminum: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum continued to oscillate. The inventory decreased, and the demand has resilience but lacks highlights. The industry has limited contradictions, and the price will mainly oscillate [5] - Zinc: Overseas funds have a strong influence. The domestic ore supply is tightening, and the bottom support is strong, but the consumption outlook is under pressure. The short - term price will oscillate in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton [8] - Lead: The LME lead inventory is at a high level, and the decline of the external market has slowed down. The domestic supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the price will oscillate in the range of 16,800 - 17,500 yuan/ton [9] - Nickel & Stainless Steel: Shanghai nickel oscillated, and the market sentiment was cold. The cost support of stainless steel continued to decline, and the price is recommended to be shorted on rebounds [10] - Tin: Overnight, LME tin turned down. Shanghai tin broke through 300,000 yuan and then adjusted. Pay attention to the inventory changes this week. It is recommended to short on rallies and hedge risks with call options [11] - Ferroalloys: - Silicon Manganese: The market has an increasing expectation of coal mine supply guarantee. The production is at a relatively high level, the inventory is slowly increasing, and the bottom support is expected to move down [19] - Silicon Iron: The market has an increasing expectation of coal mine supply guarantee. The demand has resilience, the supply is at a high level, and the bottom support will be tested [20] Chemicals - Urea: The urea futures price continued to rise, and the spot market rose slightly. The supply is sufficient, and the demand has increased in the short term, but the supply - demand surplus pattern is expected to continue [24] - Methanol: There is a game between strong expectations and weak reality. The short - term can consider unilateral long or positive spread trading, but the high inventory in ports may suppress the price increase [25] - Pure Benzene: The US gasoline crack spread has weakened. The domestic device load has been slightly adjusted down, and the price will oscillate [26] - Benzene Ethylene: The supply - demand structure has been slightly improved, the profit has been repaired, and the price will continue to oscillate [27] - Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene: The supply of propylene in Shandong is slightly tight, and the price has risen, but the cost pressure on downstream products may limit the increase. The supply of polyethylene is stable, and the demand is weakening [28] - PVC & Caustic Soda: PVC is oscillating. The export situation may improve, and the price may stop falling and stabilize. Caustic soda is also oscillating, with high inventory and weak demand [29] - PX & PTA: The short - term supply - demand of PX is weakening, but the medium - term is expected to be strong. PTA is driven by cost, and the processing margin is expected to be repaired [30] - Ethylene Glycol: The weekly output has decreased, and the supply has improved marginally, but the medium - term is still weak [31] - Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chip: Short - fiber has no new investment pressure, and the price fluctuates with raw materials. Bottle - grade chip demand is weakening, and the cost is the main driving factor [32] Agricultural Products - Grains & Oilseeds: - Soybeans & Soybean Meal: The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, the soybean meal inventory is at a high level, and the supply is loose. Pay attention to the signing and implementation of the Sino - US economic and trade agreement and South American weather [36] - Soybean Oil & Palm Oil: The overseas supply - demand of palm oil is weak, but the marginal negative factors have eased. Soybean oil is affected by the price of US soybeans, and attention should be paid to US soybean exports and South American weather [37] - Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil: The focus of the rapeseed market is on the customs clearance and crushing of Australian rapeseeds. The external market has a short - term boost to rapeseed meal, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [38] - Corn: The north port corn price is firm, and the supply and transportation of northeast corn are a concern. The downstream inventory is low, and the replenishment intention has increased. Wait for the signing of the Sino - US trade agreement and pay attention to the sales progress of new corn in the northeast [40] - Livestock & Poultry Products: - Hogs: The number of fertile sows has decreased, and the industry is reducing production capacity. The short - term price is weak, and the long - term may form a double - bottom pattern [41] - Eggs: The market is trading on the expectation of a decline in future inventory. The long - term supply pressure is expected to ease, and the fundamentals are expected to improve [42] - Cash Crops: - Cotton: US cotton has rebounded. The domestic cotton cost provides support, and the sales progress is fast. The cotton yarn market is weak, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [43] - Sugar: The international sugar supply is sufficient. The expected sugar production in Guangxi in the 25/26 season is relatively good, and attention should be paid to the production situation [44] - Apples: The futures price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term price is strong, but the long - term may face inventory pressure. Pay attention to the de - stocking situation [45] - Wood: The futures price is oscillating. The low inventory provides support, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [46] - Paper Pulp: The futures price has continued to fall. The domestic port inventory is at a high level, the supply is loose, and the demand is weak. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [47] Others - Shipping: The container shipping index (European line) shows a differentiated trend. The far - month contract is under pressure from the resumption of navigation expectations, and the near - month contract is dragged down by the weak spot market. Consider the reverse spread strategy for near - month contracts [21] - Financial Products: - Stock Index: The stock market closed down, and the futures index also fell. Geopolitical and macro - economic factors have an impact. A wait - and - see and defensive strategy is recommended [48] - Treasury Bonds: The treasury bond futures closed down, and the market is trading lightly. The price will oscillate weakly in the range, and cautious operation is recommended [49]
综合晨报-20251128
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-11-28 02:56