黑色金属数据日报-20251128

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The steel market is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. Prices are supported at the 3000 low but the upside is limited due to weak demand. Steel production is likely to decline gradually as the industry awaits the implementation of the production cut logic [2]. - The prices of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon are oscillating with insufficient driving forces. With steel prices under pressure, demand for these alloys is weakening, and the supply - demand surplus will continue to weigh on prices [3][5]. - For coking coal and coke, the current decline may be nearing its end from a valuation perspective. However, the market may need to wait for a while from a driving force perspective, and the next round of downstream restocking may start around mid - December [6]. - The fundamentals of iron ore remain weak with clear upward pressure. Inventory is expected to continue to accumulate due to reduced steel production, and the operation strategy is to sell on rallies [7]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - On November 27, the closing prices of far - month contracts RB2605 and HC2605 were 3105.00 yuan/ton and 3281.00 yuan/ton respectively, with daily declines of 0.38% and 0.33%. The closing prices of near - month contracts RB2601 and HC2601 were 3093.00 yuan/ton and 3293.00 yuan/ton respectively, with daily declines of 0.13% and 0.27% [1]. - The price is in a narrow - range oscillation. There is an impulse to rebound, but the upside is limited due to weak demand. The industry contradiction is not prominent, and the price is likely to remain within the range. The production cut logic needs time to be realized [2]. - Investment strategy: Treat the single - side with an interval oscillation mindset; consider participating in spot - futures positive arbitrage for hot - rolled coils or use option strategies to assist spot sales [8]. Silicon - iron and Manganese - silicon - The prices are oscillating with insufficient driving forces. The macro - policy has expected benefits but is unconfirmed. The direct demand has weakened significantly, and the weekly apparent demand has dropped to the lowest point of the year. The supply - demand surplus persists, and prices will be under pressure [3][5]. - Investment strategy: Investment clients can short on rallies, and industrial clients can use put - writing options to protect their spot exposure [8]. Coking Coal and Coke - On November 27, the closing prices of far - month contracts J2605 and JM2605 were 1751.00 yuan/ton and 1165.00 yuan/ton respectively, with daily declines of 0.43% and 0.21%. The closing prices of near - month contracts J2601 and JM2601 were 1607.00 yuan/ton and 1071.00 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - The spot market sentiment is weakening, with coke having a price cut expectation and most coking coal spot auctions falling. From a valuation perspective, the decline is approaching the end, but the market may need to wait for a while. The next round of downstream restocking may start around mid - December [6]. - Investment strategy: Treat the single - side with a short - term mindset for now, wait and see for the medium - and long - term, and liquidate hedging short positions [8]. Iron Ore - The short - term arrival of iron ore has weakened slightly, but the subsequent shipment is not greatly affected. With the decline of molten iron and steel production, the inventory will continue to accumulate. Although the price has rebounded at the bottom of the range, it is difficult to break through the range due to inventory pressure [7]. - Investment strategy: Hold short positions [8].