【国际原油】：原油：短线反弹，择机逢高加空

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term rebound, take the opportunity to increase short positions on rallies [1] Core View - The report analyzes the international crude oil market, including price changes of major crude oil futures contracts and the status of crude oil arbitrage in different regions [1][2][4] Summary by Directory International Crude Oil - NYMEX was closed without a quote; ICE Brent crude futures contract 01 rose $0.21 per barrel, a 0.33% increase, to $63.34; SC2601 crude oil futures closed up 6.50 yuan per barrel, a 1.46% increase, to 451.60 yuan per barrel [1] Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - All light crude oil arbitrage windows flowing into USGC are deeply closed. For example, the arbitrage values of Arabian extra - light, Arabian light, etc. are negative, indicating that US domestic crude oil has a cost advantage over imported Middle - East light crude oil. For coking refineries, there are selective opportunities for some heavy crude oils such as Vasconia and Maya [2] Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage opportunities in this region are differentiated. Forties, Arabian extra - light, Saharan Blend, and Urals have economic viability, especially Urals with a high arbitrage value of +$15.60, driving a large amount of Russian crude oil to flow into this region [4] Northwest Europe Crude Oil Arbitrage - The trans - Atlantic light crude oil arbitrage window is slightly open. WTI MEH, Eagle Ford, Azeri Light, etc. have open arbitrage windows but weak economic viability, indicating that multiple light crude oils in the European market have a slight cost advantage over local Forties crude oil [6] Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - All arbitrage windows flowing into the Mediterranean are deeply closed. Urals has an absolute cost advantage and maintains its position as the main supply source in the Mediterranean region [7][9] Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - For cracking refineries, ESPO has a strong market share and cost advantage in the Northeast Asian market. For coking refineries, there are significant opportunities, such as South American heavy crude oil Napo, Indonesian Duri, and US Mars with open arbitrage windows [9] Key Market News - Iran's supreme leader said rumors about Iran sending messages to the US through intermediaries are lies. OPEC + may keep the oil production level unchanged at the Sunday meeting and reach an agreement on the mechanism for evaluating member countries' maximum production capacity. Four online meetings will be held starting at 13:00 GMT (21:00 Beijing time) [10][11] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is 0, indicating a neutral trend [12]