贵金属日报：俄乌谈判进程持续推进，欧央行停止宽松-20251128

Market Analysis - Russia-Ukraine negotiation process continues, and the ECB ends its easing policy. Putin agrees to use the US list for resolving the Ukraine issue as the basis for future negotiations and states conditions for halting armed actions. The ECB strengthens the market's expectation of the end of the current interest rate cut cycle [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On November 27, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 947.00 yuan/gram, closed at 947.16 yuan/gram, up 0.05% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 946.90 yuan/gram, down 0.03% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 12,250.00 yuan/kilogram, closed at 12,525.00 yuan/kilogram, up 2.44% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1,827,650 lots, and the open interest was 427,960 lots. The night session closed at 12,490 yuan/kilogram, down 0.28% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On November 27, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 3.988%, down 0.19 BP from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries was 0.527%, up 1.03 BP from the previous trading day [3] Position and Volume Changes on the SHFE - On November 27, 2025, in the Au2602 contract, long positions changed by 979 lots, and short positions changed by 2,210 lots. The total trading volume of gold contracts was 346,227 lots, down 23.63% from the previous trading day. In the Ag2602 contract, long positions changed by 1,792 lots, and short positions changed by 1,933 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 2,287,902 lots, up 11.53% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,045.43 tons, up 4.57 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,582 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On November 27, 2025, the domestic gold premium was -8.08 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -1,412.49 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the SHFE gold and silver main contracts was about 75.62, down 2.33% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 79.19, down 1.81% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On November 27, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 46,178 kilograms, down 19.28% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 864,016 kilograms, up 29.27% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 59,190 kilograms [7] Strategy - Gold: Cautiously bullish. Due to concerns about the US economic slowdown and the possibility of further interest rate cuts in December, the gold price is expected to be in a slightly bullish and volatile pattern. The Au2602 contract may fluctuate between 920 yuan/gram and 970 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish. The macro logic is similar to that of gold. Due to the recovery of risk sentiment, the silver price is slightly stronger than gold, and the tight spot market drives the gold-silver ratio to narrow. The silver price is also expected to be in a slightly bullish and volatile pattern, with the Ag2602 contract fluctuating between 12,200 yuan/kilogram and 12,700 yuan/kilogram [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels - Options: Hold off