Report's Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Neutral [9] Report's Core Views - The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has declined, but the downstream's willingness to take delivery is low, and the spot discount is large. The current low inventory level is not bearish for prices. There is a good long - term buying and hedging opportunity due to the price decline caused by the current macro - sentiment. Attention should be paid to whether the expected decline in social inventory before the Spring Festival can be realized [6]. - The domestic alumina spot market is quiet, and the electrolytic aluminum plants have sufficient raw material reserves. The supply - demand is in an oversupply pattern, but the current valuation is low, and the uncertainty risk of Guinea bauxite needs to be guarded against [7][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data Aluminum Spot - The price of East China A00 aluminum is 21,460 yuan/ton, with a change of 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium/discount is - 40 yuan/ton, with a change of - 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central Plains A00 aluminum is 21,340 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount changes - 30 yuan/ton to - 160 yuan/ton. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum is 21,380 yuan/ton, with a change of 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium/discount remains unchanged at - 115 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum Futures - On November 27, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 21,600 yuan/ton, closed at 21,500 yuan/ton, with a change of 55 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price was 21,610 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 21,485 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 150,551 lots, and the open interest was 257,138 lots [2]. Inventory - As of November 27, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 596,000 tons, a change of - 17,000 tons from the previous period; the warehouse receipt inventory was 66,909 tons, a change of - 76 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 541,050 tons, a change of - 675 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On November 27, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,835 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,770 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,860 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,910 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,935 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 319 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On November 27, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,721 yuan/ton, closed at 2,724 yuan/ton, with a change of 4 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, a change rate of 0.15%. The highest price was 2,730 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,701 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 218,818 lots, and the open interest was 355,202 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On November 27, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 16,700 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 17,000 yuan/ton, with a price change of 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,700 yuan/ton, with no price change from the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy is 74,600 tons, and the in - plant inventory is 59,200 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost is 21,069 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is - 269 yuan/ton [5]. Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has declined, but the downstream's willingness to take delivery is low, and the spot discount is large. The current macro - data shows a marginal weakening trend near the end of the year, and there is a lack of upward driving force for prices in the short term. The 500,000 - ton electrolytic aluminum project of Indonesia Liqin has been completed and put into production, but the power supply problem in Indonesia may still affect the output. There is an optimistic outlook for future consumption, and the current price decline provides a good long - term buying and hedging opportunity [6]. Alumina - The domestic alumina spot market is quiet, and the electrolytic aluminum plants have sufficient raw material reserves. There are few bullish factors in the fundamentals. The bauxite price is firm, and the domestic ore is under short - term environmental protection pressure. Although the supply of imported ore is increasing, the price sentiment is weakening. The price has fallen below the marginal highest cash cost, but the cost support needs to be tested. The social inventory is increasing, and the supply - demand is in an oversupply pattern. However, the current valuation is low [7][8]. Strategy - Unilateral: Bullish on aluminum with caution, neutral on alumina, and bullish on aluminum alloy with caution [9]. - Arbitrage: Neutral [9]
新能源及有色金属日报：周度社会库存去库较为明显-20251128
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-11-28 03:16