Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The market maintains a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the development of the Russia-Ukraine situation. The crude oil price shows a weak and volatile pattern, and the expectation of oversupply in the medium - term oil market is gradually being realized. If the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is successfully reached, the geopolitical sentiment premium may further subside, which will put some pressure on the unilateral price of fuel oil. Due to the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine situation, short - term market fluctuations caused by news should be noted [1]. - The overall market contradictions of fuel oil itself are relatively limited. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil weakens again after a slight repair. The market supply is still relatively abundant, but the refinery production willingness is restricted due to the relatively low valuation of low - sulfur oil compared to gasoline and diesel, so there is still support at the bottom of the market. For high - sulfur fuel oil, the crack spread has weakened recently, and the support at the bottom of the valuation mainly comes from the elastic demand at the refinery end. The future development of the Russia - Ukraine situation will also affect Russia's fuel oil production and trade flow [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed up 0.82% at 2,471 yuan/ton in the day session, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 1% at 3,033 yuan/ton [1]. - The crude oil price is in a weak and volatile state. If the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is reached, the geopolitical premium may decline, and the falling oil price will suppress the unilateral price of fuel oil. Due to the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine situation, short - term market fluctuations caused by news should be noted [1]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the market structure weakens again after a slight repair. The supply is abundant, and the Azur refinery is expected to resume production soon, with Kuwait's exports expected to gradually recover. However, due to the relatively low valuation compared to gasoline and diesel, the refinery production willingness is restricted, and there is still support at the bottom of the market [1]. - For high - sulfur fuel oil, the crack spread has weakened recently, and the support at the bottom of the valuation mainly comes from the elastic demand at the refinery end. The future development of the Russia - Ukraine situation will affect Russia's fuel oil production and trade flow [1]. Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Be cautiously bearish and mainly wait and see in the short term [2]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Be cautiously bearish and mainly wait and see in the short term [2]. - No strategies are provided for cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, and options [2].
燃料油日报：盘面维持震荡，关注俄乌局势走向-20251128
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-11-28 03:16