国投证券港股晨报-20251128

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed a mixed performance with the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index slightly up, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.36%, indicating a cautious shift in investor sentiment after recent rebounds [2][3] - The total market turnover was approximately HKD 204.7 billion, with short selling on the main board reaching about HKD 36.7 billion, accounting for approximately 20.41% of the total turnover [2] - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of approximately HKD 1.3 billion, with Alibaba, Pop Mart, and Meituan being the most actively bought stocks, while Xiaomi, Zijin Mining, and Tencent were the most sold [2][3] Group 2: Sector Performance - The paper industry continued its strong performance, with leading paper companies seeing stock price increases due to expectations of improved industry profitability from previous price hikes [2] - The consumer sector also performed well, with multiple sub-sectors such as tobacco, automotive, new retail, and dairy products showing significant gains, supported by a recent policy initiative from six ministries aimed at boosting consumption [3] - Conversely, the real estate sector faced notable declines, with concerns over debt restructuring among leading companies leading to reduced investor risk appetite [3] Group 3: Company Analysis - Lenovo Group - Lenovo Group reported better-than-expected Q2 results, with its Intelligent Devices Group (IDG) revenue increasing by 11.8% year-on-year to USD 15.11 billion, benefiting from a rise in AI computer shipments and strong sales of high-end products [5] - The Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) saw a significant revenue increase of 23.7% year-on-year to USD 4.09 billion, driven by AI infrastructure business growth, despite a small operating loss [5][6] - The Solutions and Services Group (SSG) achieved record revenue growth of 18.1% year-on-year to USD 2.56 billion, with a strong operating profit margin of 22.3% [6] Group 4: Strategic Initiatives - Lenovo is focusing on AI development, shifting towards a more inclusive approach that emphasizes human and enterprise entities, which is expected to create growth opportunities in various AI terminal devices and solutions [6] - The company is preparing for ongoing storage supply shortages and price increases by securing long-term agreements with key suppliers and leveraging its cost advantages to manage potential cost pressures [7] - The forecast for Lenovo's adjusted net profit for the fiscal years 2025/26 and 2026/27 is USD 1.62 billion (up 12.5% year-on-year) and USD 1.78 billion (up 9.9% year-on-year), respectively, with a target price of HKD 12.3, indicating a "buy" rating [7]