新能源及有色金属日报：基本面平稳估值偏低-20251128

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not explicitly provided in the report Core View - The fundamentals of the zinc market are turning positive, with low LME inventory levels, high overseas premiums, and a continuously open Chinese export window. Domestic social inventory is declining, and the supply - side pressure is expected to ease in the future. The current zinc valuation is low, and there is optimism about future consumption despite some fluctuations in the US December interest - rate cut expectations [4] Summary by Related Content Important Data - Spot: LME zinc spot premium is $163.36 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,450 yuan per ton, up 50 yuan from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of 50 yuan per ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,410 yuan per ton, up 70 yuan, with a spot premium of - 20 yuan per ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,390 yuan per ton, up 50 yuan, with a spot premium of - 10 yuan per ton [1] - Futures: On November 27, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,480 yuan per ton, closed at 22,415 yuan per ton, down 55 yuan. The trading volume was 114,645 lots, and the open interest was 101,749 lots. The highest price was 22,565 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 22,410 yuan per ton [2] - Inventory: As of November 27, 2025, SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 148,100 tons, down 2,900 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory was 50,800 tons, up 875 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - The fundamentals are favorable. Although LME inventory is rising, the absolute level is low, overseas premiums are high, and the Chinese export window is open. Domestic social inventory is decreasing, and the number of warehouse receipts is falling. Despite low downstream procurement enthusiasm, spot premiums are stable due to low arrivals. TC prices are falling at home and abroad, and smelting costs are facing losses, which may lead to reduced supply - side pressure in the future [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [5] - Arbitrage: Inter - period positive spread arbitrage [5]