华宝期货晨报煤焦-20251128

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - Recent domestic coal production has stabilized, Mongolian coal imports are at a high level, domestic hot metal production is declining, and the weak delivery logic is dragging down near - month contracts with the futures price trading at a discount to the spot price. The market may remain weak in the short term [3] Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Performance - Yesterday, the coking coal and coke futures prices oscillated weakly, and the prices dropped further during the night session. The position of the coking coal 01 contract is gradually shifting to the 05 contract. The weak delivery logic is dragging down the near - month prices, and the futures price is trading at a discount to the spot price. The spot market is generally weak, with coal prices回调 in some regions. After four rounds of price increases, coke prices are stable for now, but there are expectations of price cuts in the market [3] Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Mysteel research shows that this week, multiple coal mines in Linfen and Lvliang, Shanxi, have shut down, leading to a decline in production. Most of the shutdowns are for a long time, and there is little room for a significant increase in coal mine production in the short term. Entering December, some coal mines say they are close to completing their annual production tasks, face high safety production pressure, and with weakening downstream purchasing willingness, there is a slight increase in self - controlled production cuts by coal mines [3] - Demand: The procurement pace of downstream coal - using enterprises has slowed down recently, leading to inventory accumulation at upstream mines. Coking production is normal, but the profitability of steel mills has shrunk, the blast furnace operating rate has decreased, and the daily average hot metal production has dropped to 234.68 million tons, a decrease of 1.6 million tons from the previous week and an increase of 0.81 million tons compared to last year [3]