贵金属数据日报-20251128

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market's expectation of the Fed's rate cut in December is still high, which supports the precious metal prices. However, the easing of geopolitical tensions and the neutral economic data in the US limit the upward movement of precious metal prices. The domestic silver inventory is at a near - decade low, causing the silver price to rise against the gold price. In the short - term, gold is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range, and silver may fluctuate strongly, but attention should be paid to inventory changes. In the long - term, due to factors such as the Fed's rate - cut cycle, geopolitical uncertainties, and the continuation of central bank gold purchases, the long - term center of gold prices is likely to move up, and long - term investors are advised to buy on dips [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price Tracking - Precious Metal Prices: On November 27, 2025, London gold spot was at $4157.26/ounce, London silver spot at $53.42/ounce, COMEX gold at $4189.80/ounce, and COMEX silver at $53.97/ounce. Compared with November 26, the price of London gold spot increased by 0.2%, London silver spot by 2.9%, COMEX gold by 0.1%, and COMEX silver by 3.2%. The prices of domestic gold and silver futures also showed certain increases, with the Shanghai gold futures main contract rising 0.14% to 947.16 yuan/gram and the Shanghai silver futures main contract rising 3.35% to 12525 yuan/kilogram [3][5] - Price Spreads and Ratios: The gold TD - SHFE active price spread was - 1.6 yuan/gram on November 27, with a 15.9% increase compared to the previous day. The silver TD - SHFE active price spread was - 13 yuan/kilogram, a - 35.0% change. The gold and silver price ratios and spreads between domestic and foreign markets also had different degrees of changes [5] 2. Position Data - As of November 26, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1045.43 tons, with a 0.44% increase compared to November 25. The silver ETF - SLV was 15582.3342 tons, unchanged. The non - commercial long and short positions of COMEX gold and silver also had corresponding changes, with the non - commercial net long position of COMEX gold decreasing by 12.09% [5] 3. Inventory Data - On November 27, 2025, the SHFE gold inventory was 90423.00 kilograms, unchanged from the previous day, and the SHFE silver inventory was 546976.00 kilograms, a 2.97% increase. The COMEX gold and silver inventories also had slight changes [5] 4. Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Stock Market Data - On November 27, 2025, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.08, a - 0.02% change. The US dollar index was 99.59, a - 0.22% change. The yields of 2 - year and 10 - year US Treasury bonds, VIX, S&P 500, and NYWEX crude oil also had different degrees of changes [5] 5. Market Review - On November 27, the Shanghai gold futures main contract closed up 0.14% to 947.16 yuan/gram, and the Shanghai silver futures main contract closed up 3.35% to 12525 yuan/kilogram [5] 6. Influencing Factors Analysis and Short - Term Outlook - Although the US weekly initial jobless claims dropped to the lowest level since mid - April, the US economic beige book showed that the Trump administration shutdown had a negative impact on consumer purchases. The market's high expectation of the Fed's rate cut in December supports precious metal prices, but geopolitical tensions easing and neutral economic data limit the upward movement. The low domestic silver inventory has led to a rise in silver prices. In the short - term, gold may fluctuate in a high - level range, and silver may fluctuate strongly, but attention should be paid to inventory changes [6] 7. Medium - and Long - Term Viewpoints - In the medium - and long - term, the Fed is still in a rate - cut cycle, global geopolitical uncertainties persist, the US debt is unsustainable, and great - power competition intensifies, increasing the long - term risk of the US dollar's credit. The continuation of central bank gold purchases will likely drive up the long - term center of gold prices. Long - term investors are advised to buy on dips [6]