需求存在支撑,钢价波动率偏低
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-11-28 03:41
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The demand for steel is supported, and the volatility of steel prices is relatively low [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals - Price and Basis: The report presents various price and basis seasonality charts for Shanghai 20mm rebar and 4.75mm hot-rolled coil, including spot prices, 01 contract basis, 01 - 05 contract spreads, and the spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar in the main contract [8][9][14]. - Production: It shows statistics on monthly pig iron and crude steel production from the National Bureau of Statistics, 247 steel mills' daily average hot metal output, and 89 independent electric arc furnace capacity utilization [28][30]. - Imports and Exports: Charts display the import quantities of steel and billets, as well as the monthly export values of steel and billets. Additionally, it presents the export profits of Indian and Japanese hot-rolled coils [36][62][64]. - Demand and Inventory: There are charts on the weekly apparent demand and total inventory of five major steel products, rebar, hot-rolled coil, and the billet inventory in the Tangshan area. It also shows the global (excluding China) blast furnace pig iron production [42][44][57][59]. - Scrap Addition Ratio: The scrap addition ratio and the proportion of five major steel products to hot metal are presented [40]. 3.2 December Market Outlook - Profitability: Charts show the cash profits of East China electric arc furnaces (flat electricity) and North China long-process rebar, as well as the weekly production of rebar and hot-rolled coil [68][69]. - Macroeconomic Indicators: It includes charts on new social financing scale, new RMB loans, cumulative year-on-year growth of fixed asset investment, land transaction area in 100 large and medium-sized cities, month-on-month growth of commercial housing sales area, new housing construction area, housing completion area, and real estate development funds [73][81][83][92]. - Infrastructure Investment: Charts display the issuance amount of local government special bonds, the loan demand index for infrastructure, cumulative year-on-year growth of infrastructure fixed asset investment, and the month-on-month growth of cement direct supply for infrastructure and cement delivery for housing construction and civil use [103][108][110]. - Manufacturing Indicators: It presents the performance of various sub - items of the PMI, manufacturing PMI, cumulative year-on-year growth of industrial enterprise profits and its manufacturing sub - items, month-on-month growth of industrial added value and its sub - items, industrial enterprise finished product inventory and its year-on-year growth, and finished product turnover days [116][118][119]. - Downstream Industry Output: Charts show China's monthly automobile production, year-on-year growth of civil steel ship production, monthly output of excavators, monthly output of metal containers, year-on-year growth of refrigerator production, and year-on-year growth of air conditioner production [133][135][137].