国泰君安期货：PVC：低位震荡

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report - PVC futures have fallen to historical low levels with low absolute valuations. Some devices may reduce production due to large losses, so short - term short - chasing is not advisable. However, winter is the off - season for chlor - alkali enterprise overhauls, and the scale of new overhauls may be limited. Futures contracts before the 03 contract still face a pattern of high production and weak demand. The expectation of large - scale production cuts may occur after the 03 contract. Also, PVC warehouse receipts are at a high level, increasing the pressure on long - position holders to take delivery. Overall, the high - production and high - inventory structure of the PVC market is difficult to change in the short term, but considering the continuous decline in caustic soda profits and the low historical level of chlor - alkali comprehensive profits, more significant production cuts on the supply side during the overhaul peak season next year can be expected [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Contents PVC Fundamental Data - The 01 - contract futures price is 4517, the East China spot price is 4450, the basis is - 67, and the 1 - 5 month spread is - 281 [1]. Spot Market Situation - The domestic PVC spot market sales are at a standstill. The sales quotes of calcium carbide - based PVC remain firm but face significant upward resistance during trading. The sales of ethylene - based PVC are smooth in some regions, increasing market competition pressure. In the East China region, the spot cash warehouse - pickup price of calcium carbide - based type 5 PVC is 4420 - 4520 yuan/ton, and that of ethylene - based PVC is 4500 - 4600 yuan/ton [1]. Market Condition Analysis - PVC futures are at historical lows with low absolute valuations. Some devices may cut production due to large losses, so short - term short - chasing is not recommended. Winter is the off - season for chlor - alkali enterprise overhauls, and new overhauls may have limited scale. Futures contracts before the 03 contract face high production and weak demand. The expectation of large - scale production cuts may be after the 03 contract. PVC warehouse receipts are high, increasing the pressure on long - position holders to take delivery. The high - production and high - inventory structure of the PVC market is hard to change in the short term, but more production cuts on the supply side during the overhaul peak season next year can be expected due to low chlor - alkali comprehensive profits [1]. Trend Intensity - The PVC trend intensity is 0, with a range of [- 2, 2]. - 2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [2]. Overall Market Trend - The overall trend of PVC is low - level oscillation [3].