2025年11月28日：期货市场交易指引-20251128

Report Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Index futures are bullish in the medium to long term and recommend buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5]. - Black Building Materials: Coking coal and rebar suggest range trading; glass is expected to continue weakening [1][5][7]. - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper, aluminum, tin, gold, and silver recommend range trading; nickel suggests waiting or shorting on rallies; lithium carbonate is expected to trade with a bullish bias [1][9][14]. - Energy and Chemicals: PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol suggest range trading; caustic soda and soda ash recommend waiting and watching; polyolefins are expected to trade with a bearish bias [1][16][18]. - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade sideways; PTA suggests range - bound trading; apples are expected to trade with a bullish bias; jujubes are expected to trade with a bearish bias [1][25][27]. - Agriculture and Animal Husbandry: Live pigs' near - term contracts are expected to adjust weakly at low levels, and long - term contracts should be cautiously chased for rallies; eggs' price increase is limited; corn suggests waiting for a rebound to hedge at high prices; soybean meal suggests range trading; oils and fats suggest buying on dips after a rebound [1][30][34]. Core Views The report analyzes various futures markets, including macro finance, black building materials, non - ferrous metals, energy and chemicals, cotton textile industry chain, and agriculture and animal husbandry. It provides trading suggestions based on current market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors for each sector. Summary by Category Macro Finance - Index Futures: Due to factors such as rising US inflation, weak retail sales, and high - valuation risks in Europe, the market rotation is fast, and index futures are expected to trade sideways in the short term but are bullish in the medium to long term [5]. - Treasury Bonds: The bond market is currently "insensitive to positive news and sensitive to negative news" because of the narrow interest - rate fluctuation range, which reduces the attractiveness to institutional investors. Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [5]. Black Building Materials - Double - Coking Coal: The coal market is in a downward trend with weak demand. Most mines are reducing prices, and the market is in a wait - and - see state. It is recommended to trade within a range [6]. - Rebar: With unclear prospects for the Fed's December interest - rate cut and a domestic policy vacuum, steel production and demand have both declined this week. Steel mills' profits are low, and production cuts may increase. Rebar is expected to trade within a range at low levels [7]. - Glass: Although there are rumors of production line cold - repairs, most of them are false. Supply remains stable, demand is weak, and glass prices are expected to continue weakening [8]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Concerns about supply from Congo (Kinshasa) and the restart of production in Indonesia's Grasberg mine are factors. Consumption has improved, and social inventories have decreased. Copper prices are expected to remain high in the short term, with a trading range of 85,000 - 88,000 yuan, and it is recommended to trade within the range [9]. - Aluminum: The price of bauxite is expected to decline, and alumina production capacity is increasing. Aluminum production capacity is relatively stable, and demand is entering the off - season. Aluminum prices are expected to trade sideways [9][10]. - Nickel: Indonesia's new RKAB policy may increase supply uncertainty. Nickel is in an oversupply situation, and it is recommended to wait or short on rallies [13]. - Tin: Domestic production and imports have changed, and the semiconductor industry is recovering. Supply is expected to improve, and tin prices are expected to be supported. It is recommended to pay attention to supply and demand [14]. - Silver and Gold: Affected by the US economic data and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, both are expected to trade sideways in the short term and be supported in the medium term [14][15]. - Lithium Carbonate: Supply is affected by mine production, and demand is strong. The domestic supply - demand is in a tight balance, and prices are expected to trade with a bullish bias [15]. Energy and Chemicals - PVC: High supply, weak domestic demand, and uncertain export growth. PVC is expected to trade with a bearish bias, and it is necessary to pay attention to policies and cost factors [16]. - Caustic Soda: Affected by alumina production and inventory, it is recommended to wait and watch [18]. - Styrene: The rebound is limited by factors such as pure - benzene supply and demand and port inventory. It is expected to trade sideways [18]. - Rubber: Entering the off - season of production, inventory is increasing, and demand is weak. Rubber prices are expected to trade within a range [20]. - Urea: Supply is increasing, demand from agriculture is weakening, and industrial demand is strengthening. Urea is expected to trade sideways [21]. - Methanol: Supply is increasing, demand from the olefin industry is stable, and traditional demand is weak. Methanol prices are expected to trade sideways [23]. - Polyolefins: Supply pressure has eased, demand is improving slightly, and prices are expected to trade with a bearish bias. It is necessary to pay attention to downstream demand and raw - material prices [24]. - Soda Ash: Supply is expected to decrease, demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and watch [24]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: Global cotton supply and demand are relatively loose, but yarn prices are firm, and they are expected to trade sideways [27]. - PTA: Affected by oil prices and supply - demand, it is expected to trade within a range at low levels [27]. - Apples: Warehouse trading is stable, and prices are expected to trade with a bullish bias [28]. - Jujubes: Acquisition progress varies by region, and prices are expected to trade with a bearish bias [29]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - Live Pigs: Short - term supply pressure remains, demand growth is limited, and long - term capacity reduction is accelerating but still above the normal level. Near - term contracts are recommended to be shorted on rallies, and long - term contracts should be cautiously chased for rallies [30][32]. - Eggs: Short - term supply and demand are improving marginally, long - term capacity reduction takes time, and price increases are limited [32][33]. - Corn: Short - term supply pressure is relieved, long - term supply and demand are relatively loose, and it is recommended to hedge at high prices after a rebound [34]. - Soybean Meal: Affected by import policies and weather, it is recommended to trade within a range [35]. - Oils and Fats: Short - term prices are rebounding, but there are still many limiting factors. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to palm - oil data [35][40].