蛋白数据日报-20251128

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - Affected by the news that China banned a Brazilian soybean ship from entering the country and suspended some Brazilian exporters from exporting soybeans, the near - month contract of soybean meal rose significantly today, and the monthly spread tends to be in a positive spread. The news is expected to have more impact on sentiment, with limited actual impact. The domestic market is expected to maintain a range - bound trend. Attention should be paid to weather changes in South America, and there is no obvious drought problem in the short - term weather [8]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Price and Spread Data - On November 27, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Zhangjiagang was 75, down 20; the basis of 43% soybean meal spot in Tianjin, Rizhao, and Zhangjiagang was 35, - 15, - 25 respectively, down 20, 20, 40 respectively; the basis of soybean meal spot in Dongguan, Zhanjiang, and Fangcheng was - 55, down 40; the basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was - 37, down 136; M1 - M5 was 217, up 28; M1 - RM1 and RM1 - 5 data were also provided; the spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 300, and the spread of the main contract was 586 [6][7]. 3.2 International and Inventory Data - The exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.0434, and the Brazilian soybean CNF premium and import soybean gross profit data were provided. The inventory data of Chinese port soybeans, major domestic oil mills' soybeans and soybean meal, and the number of days of feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory were also presented, showing that domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels [7]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: According to CONAB data, the predicted output of new Brazilian soybeans in 2025/26 will reach 177.6 million tons. As of November 15, the sowing rate of Brazilian soybeans was 69.0%, and as of November 13, the planting rate of Argentine soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 15%. It is necessary to pay attention to the relatively dry weather in southern Brazil and northern Argentina in the next few weeks. The domestic soybean meal is expected to reduce inventory from November to December, but the supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be loose. The progress of ship - buying for the December - January shipment is slow, and the supply gap in the first quarter of next year is uncertain [7][8]. - Demand: Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain a high inventory in the short - term, supporting feed demand. However, the current breeding profit is in a loss, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the long - term supply. The soybean meal has relatively high cost - effectiveness, and the far - month trading volume of the soybean meal downstream has increased recently, with good提货 performance [8].