Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of crude oil 2601 is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, the intraday view is bullish, and the overall reference view is bullish operation. The core logic is that the bullish sentiment has warmed up, and crude oil is oscillating strongly [1]. - Due to the significantly worse - than - expected September non - farm payroll data in the US, the macro sentiment has weakened. The latest quarterly report of OPEC has changed the global oil market in the third quarter from "supply shortage" to "a daily surplus of 500,000 barrels", amplifying the expectation of loose supply. The current weak supply - demand structure of the oil market is gradually competing with geopolitical sentiment. As the market is worried about a possible cease - fire agreement in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the geopolitical premium in the oil market has retreated. On Thursday night, domestic crude oil futures maintained an oscillatory and bullish trend with a slight increase in prices, and it is expected that they may maintain a bullish trend on Friday [5]. Group 3: Summary by Category Price and Market Performance - For domestic crude oil futures, on Thursday night, they maintained an oscillatory and bullish trend with a slight increase in prices [5]. Driving Factors - Macro factor: The significantly worse - than - expected September non - farm payroll data in the US has led to a weakening of macro sentiment [5]. - Supply - demand factor: OPEC's latest quarterly report has changed the global oil market in the third quarter from "supply shortage" to "a daily surplus of 500,000 barrels", increasing the expectation of loose supply [5]. - Geopolitical factor: The market's worry about a possible cease - fire agreement in the Russia - Ukraine conflict has led to the retreat of the geopolitical premium in the oil market [5].
宝城期货原油早报-20251128
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-11-28 05:08