尿素早评：价格底部或逐步明朗-20251128

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current bottom of urea prices may gradually become clear. Urea's rebound from the bottom is limited, and its valuation remains relatively low, reflecting the current pattern of strong supply and weak demand. However, the new round of export quotas will ease the supply pressure in the fourth quarter to some extent, and the winter reserve demand will support the price, and low prices may stimulate storage enterprises to enter the market. In the long - term, investors should focus on opportunities to go long at low prices [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Prices (Closing Prices) - UR01: 1668 yuan/ton on November 27, up 14 yuan (0.85%) from November 26 [1] - UR05: 1727 yuan/ton on November 27, up 9 yuan (0.52%) from November 26 [1] - UR09: 1736 yuan/ton on November 27, up 4 yuan (0.23%) from November 26 [1] Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule) - Shandong: 1650 yuan/ton on November 27, up 20 yuan (1.23%) from November 26 [1] - Shanxi: 1520 yuan/ton on November 27, up 20 yuan (1.33%) from November 26 [1] - Henan: 1650 yuan/ton on November 27, up 20 yuan (1.23%) from November 26 [1] - Hebei: 1660 yuan/ton on November 27, up 10 yuan (0.61%) from November 26 [1] - Northeast: 1720 yuan/ton on November 27, unchanged from November 26 [1] - Jiangsu: 1640 yuan/ton on November 27, up 20 yuan (1.23%) from November 26 [1] Basis and Spreads - Shandong spot - UR: - 77 yuan/ton on November 27, up 11 yuan from November 26 [1] - 01 - 05: - 59 yuan/ton on November 27, up 5 yuan from November 26 [1] Upstream Costs - Anthracite prices in Henan: 1030 yuan/ton on November 27, unchanged from November 26 [1] - Anthracite prices in Shanxi: 930 yuan/ton on November 27, unchanged from November 26 [1] Downstream Prices - Compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong: 3030 yuan/ton on November 27, unchanged from November 26 [1] - Melamine prices in Shandong: 5190 yuan/ton on November 27, unchanged from November 26 [1] - Melamine prices in Jiangsu: 5200 yuan/ton on November 27, unchanged from November 26 [1] Important Information - The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1653 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1672 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1653 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1668 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1665 yuan/ton. The position volume was 230913 lots [1]