氯碱日报：PVC开工小幅提升，社会库存累库-20251128

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - PVC shows a narrow - range fluctuation and rebounds with the macro - sentiment. The overall supply - demand is weak, and the follow - up device maintenance and macro - sentiment should be focused on. The export window is open, but PVC product exports may be affected later [3] - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight decline. The supply increases slightly, and the demand is weak in the non - aluminum sector. The new alumina plant's procurement in the next two months may support the price, with cost support still existing [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. PVC Market News and Key Data - Futures prices and basis: PVC main contract closed at 4,517 yuan/ton (+28), East China basis - 57 yuan/ton (-18), South China basis - 27 yuan/ton (-28) [1] - Spot prices: East China calcium carbide method quoted at 4,460 yuan/ton (+10), South China calcium carbide method quoted at 4,490 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Upstream production profits: Semi - coke price 800 yuan/ton (+0), calcium carbide price 2,830 yuan/ton (+25), calcium carbide profit - 100 yuan/ton (+25), PVC calcium carbide method production gross profit - 848 yuan/ton (-28), PVC ethylene method production gross profit - 516 yuan/ton (-25), PVC export profit - 3.4 dollars/ton (-8.8) [1] - PVC inventory and operation: PVC factory inventory 31.5 tons (-0.7), PVC social inventory 52.8 tons (+0.1), PVC calcium carbide method operation rate 82.21% (+2.06%), PVC ethylene method operation rate 71.12% (-0.19%), PVC operation rate 78.85% (+1.37%) [1] - Downstream order situation: Production enterprise pre - sales volume 67.6 tons (-2.3) [1] Market Analysis - PVC fluctuates narrowly and rebounds with the macro - sentiment. There is no new device maintenance this week, but some enterprises consider production cut. New production capacity is gradually put into production. The supply is abundant, downstream operation decreases slightly, and the overall purchasing sentiment is average. The domestic export window is open, but PVC product exports may be affected [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Narrow - range fluctuation and rebound with the macro - sentiment [4] - Inter - period: Wait - and - see [4] - Inter - variety: None [4] 2. Caustic Soda Market News and Key Data - Futures prices and basis: SH main contract closed at 2,238 yuan/ton (+9), Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda basis 106 yuan/ton (-40) [1] - Spot prices: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda quoted at 750 yuan/ton (-10), Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda quoted at 1,230 yuan/ton (+0) [2] - Upstream production profits: Shandong caustic soda single - variety profit 1,348 yuan/ton (-31), Shandong chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) 682.3 yuan/ton (-71.3), Shandong chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (1 ton of PVC) - 229.72 yuan/ton (-66.25), Northwest chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (1 ton of PVC) 540.52 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2] - Caustic soda inventory and operation: Liquid caustic soda factory inventory 46.98 tons (+4.22), flake caustic soda factory inventory 3.27 tons (+0.18), caustic soda operation rate 85.00% (+0.40%) [2] - Caustic soda downstream operation: Alumina operation rate 85.46% (+0.09%), East China printing and dyeing operation rate 65.52% (-1.03%), viscose staple fiber operation rate 91.29% (+1.20%) [2] Market Analysis - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight decline. The supply increases slightly, and the demand from alumina plants in Shandong weakens. The inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu accumulates. The non - aluminum sector has weak demand. The new alumina plants in Guangxi may support the price, and there is cost support [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Range fluctuation [5] - Inter - period: Go long on SH12 - 01 when the price is low [5] - Inter - variety: None [5]