铜：长单升水预期较高，支撑价格

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The long - term premium of copper is expected to be high, which supports the price [1] - The global copper market will turn into a supply shortage of 150,000 tons in 2026 [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Copper Fundamental Data - Futures Information: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 86,990 with a daily increase of 0.46%, and the night - session closing price was 87,050 with a night - session increase of 0.07%. The price of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 10,930, a decrease of 0.21%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper Index was 183,253, a decrease of 13,069 from the previous day, and the position was 538,571, an increase of 7,273. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 10,519, a decrease of 11,957, and the position was 330,000, an increase of 3,102. The inventory of Shanghai Copper was 35,873, a decrease of 3,952, and the inventory of LME Copper was 157,175, an increase of 675. The注销仓单 ratio of LME Copper was 3.87%, unchanged from the previous day [1] - Spot Information: The LME copper premium was 8.83, a decrease of 0.69 from the previous day. The bonded - area bill of lading premium was 48, unchanged. The bonded - area warehouse receipt premium was 32, unchanged. The price of Shanghai 1 bright copper was 78,800, an increase of 300. The spot - to - near - month futures spread was 105, an increase of 25. The spread between the near - month contract and the consecutive - first contract was - 60, a decrease of 30. The cost of the inter - period arbitrage of buying the near - month contract and selling the consecutive - first contract was 246. The spread between the Shanghai copper spot and LME cash was - 851, a decrease of 188. The spread between the Shanghai Copper consecutive - third contract and LME 3M was - 565, a decrease of 205. The spread between the Shanghai copper spot and Shanghai 1 recycled copper was 3,135, a decrease of 104. The import profit and loss of recycled copper was - 645, a decrease of 349 [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - Macro News: In October, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China decreased by 5.5% year - on - year, while the manufacturing and power sectors had relatively rapid growth in the first 10 months. The National Development and Reform Commission Price Department organized a symposium on the cost determination of disorderly price competition, emphasizing the prevention of high - repetition humanoid robot products from "crowding" the market, establishing a sound entry and exit mechanism for the embodied intelligence industry, and encouraging the orderly development of various new energy storage and hydrogen energy technology routes [1] - Industry News: In September, the global refined copper market had a shortage of 51,000 tons, while there was a surplus of 41,000 tons in August. After a fatal mud surge accident in September, Freeport's Indonesian branch expects the production activities of the Grasberg Block Cave mine to fully resume in 2027. An executive of Aurubis, Europe's largest copper smelter, said the company was willing to reject low offers for copper concentrates. The negotiation of annual contracts for copper concentrates was in a tense state, and the processing fee was at a record negative value. Chile's state - owned copper company Codelco offered a CIF China electrolytic copper long - term contract base price of $350 per ton in 2026, a $261 increase from $89 per ton in 2025 [3] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of copper is 1, indicating a moderately positive trend [3]