金融期货早评-20251128

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall Economic Situation: Overseas, the US employment data shows significant differentiation, and the Fed officials' recent statements strengthen the expectation of a December interest rate cut. Domestically, the economic fundamentals are cooling marginally, and the market's expectation of policy intensification is rising [2]. - Renminbi Exchange Rate: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar is expected to show a "sideways bottoming, slowly declining central tendency" trend. In the short term, the appreciation rhythm may slow down, but the overall appreciation trend remains unchanged [3]. - Stock Index: The stock index is expected to have a narrow - range sideways movement in the short term due to weak fundamentals and lack of new positive factors [4]. - Treasury Bonds: The medium - term view is to hold long positions, and new long positions can be gradually established at low prices [5]. - Container Shipping to Europe: The container shipping to Europe futures is expected to be sideways and weak in the short term, with geopolitical expectations dominating the market sentiment [7]. - Precious Metals: In the medium - to - long term, the price of precious metals will continue to rise. In the short term, pay attention to the December Fed interest rate cut expectation and the 60 - day moving average. Dips are considered opportunities to increase long positions [10]. - Copper: The futures price is expected to move upwards if it breaks through 87,000. Downstream enterprises in need can buy futures for hedging [12]. - Aluminum Industry Chain: Aluminum is expected to have a high - level sideways movement; alumina is expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy is expected to have a high - level sideways movement [13]. - Zinc: Zinc is expected to have a strong sideways movement in the short term due to stalemate fundamentals [14]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: They are expected to continue their wide - range sideways movement, with limited improvement in fundamentals [15]. - Tin: Tin is expected to have a high - level sideways movement. It is not recommended to short in the short term [17]. - Lithium Carbonate: In the short term, be cautious about chasing high prices near 100,000 yuan/ton. In the medium - to - long term, seize the opportunity to build long positions after dips [19]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: Industrial silicon is expected to have a sideways movement in the short term and has long - term value for position building at low prices. Polysilicon should pay attention to position risks [21]. - Lead: Lead is expected to move sideways between 16,800 - 17,100 yuan/ton [24]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: They are expected to move within a range, with rebar between 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton and hot - rolled coil between 3,100 - 3,400 yuan/ton [26]. - Iron Ore: Iron ore is currently strong, but it is recommended to wait for the basis to repair and then consider shorting at high prices [28]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Coking coal has limited downward space and has long - term multi - allocation potential for the far - month contract. For coke, it is not recommended to blindly short [29]. - Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese: They are expected to be sideways and weak due to high inventory and weak demand [31]. - LPG: The domestic LPG is relatively strong, and the short - term arrival is expected to remain low [32]. - PTA - PX: The PX - PTA may decline after the previous speculation funds leave. The TA01 contract has a large pressure above 4,800 yuan, and the processing fee should be operated within the 200 - 290 range [35]. - MEG - Bottle Chip: Maintain the idea of shorting at high prices. Consider shorting or selling call options above 3,900 yuan for the 01 contract [37]. - PP: PP is expected to maintain a low - level sideways movement due to weak spot prices and lack of upward drivers [39]. - PE: PE is expected to continue its supply - strong and demand - weak situation, and a put - option strategy can be considered [42]. - Pure Benzene and Styrene: Pay attention to the actual transaction of US - South Korea pure benzene and the domestic large - factory maintenance plan [44]. - Fuel Oil: The high - sulfur fuel oil cracking is expected to decline in the future, while the low - sulfur fuel oil cracking has an upward drive [45][47]. - Asphalt: Asphalt is expected to move sideways in the short term. Pay attention to the winter storage policy [49]. - Rubber and 20 - Rubber: The rubber system is expected to maintain a wide - range sideways movement, with light - colored rubber relatively stronger [51]. - Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda: Soda ash is expected to be weak; glass 01 contract will follow the reality, and pay attention to the cold - repair situation; caustic soda has weak supply - demand fundamentals [52][53][54]. - Pulp and Offset Paper: They are expected to maintain a sideways or sideways - weak movement in the short term [56]. - Log: The log market is expected to be sideways and weak. Consider shorting at high prices and 01 - 03 reverse - spread opportunities [57]. - Propylene: Propylene is under the weak pressure of PP, and the domestic supply remains loose [59]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - Macro: The profit of domestic industrial enterprises is declining marginally. The US employment data is differentiated, and the Fed's December interest rate cut expectation is strengthened [1][2]. - Renminbi Exchange Rate: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.0806, down 4 points. The mid - price appreciated to the highest level since October 14, 2024. It is expected to show a "sideways bottoming, slowly declining central tendency" trend [3]. - Stock Index: The stock index rose and then fell, with shrinking trading volume. It is expected to have a narrow - range sideways movement in the short term [4]. - Treasury Bonds: The treasury bonds were sideways on Thursday. It is recommended to hold long positions in the medium term and gradually build new long positions at low prices [4][5]. - Container Shipping to Europe: The container shipping to Europe futures was narrowly sideways. It is expected to be sideways and weak in the short term, with geopolitical expectations dominating the market sentiment [5][7]. Commodities Non - Ferrous Metals - Precious Metals: Platinum and palladium rose and then fell, while gold and silver maintained a sideways movement. The Fed's December interest rate cut expectation is high. It is expected that the price of precious metals will rise in the medium - to - long term [8][10]. - Copper: The INE copper price rose sharply. The global copper market is expected to be in short supply in 2026. The futures price is expected to move upwards if it breaks through 87,000 [11][12]. - Aluminum Industry Chain: Aluminum is expected to have a high - level sideways movement; alumina is expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy is expected to have a high - level sideways movement [13][14]. - Zinc: Zinc is expected to have a strong sideways movement in the short term due to stalemate fundamentals [14]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: They are expected to continue their wide - range sideways movement, with limited improvement in fundamentals [15][16]. - Tin: Tin is expected to have a high - level sideways movement. It is not recommended to short in the short term [17]. - Lithium Carbonate: The futures price fell. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing high prices near 100,000 yuan/ton in the short term and seize the opportunity to build long positions after dips in the medium - to - long term [18][19]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: Industrial silicon is expected to have a sideways movement in the short term and has long - term value for position building at low prices. Polysilicon should pay attention to position risks [19][21]. - Lead: Lead is expected to move sideways between 16,800 - 17,100 yuan/ton [24]. Ferrous Metals - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: They are expected to move within a range, with rebar between 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton and hot - rolled coil between 3,100 - 3,400 yuan/ton [25][26]. - Iron Ore: Iron ore is currently strong, but it is recommended to wait for the basis to repair and then consider shorting at high prices [28]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Coking coal has limited downward space and has long - term multi - allocation potential for the far - month contract. For coke, it is not recommended to blindly short [29][30]. - Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese: They are expected to be sideways and weak due to high inventory and weak demand [31]. Energy and Chemicals - LPG: The domestic LPG is relatively strong, and the short - term arrival is expected to remain low [32]. - PTA - PX: The PX - PTA may decline after the previous speculation funds leave. The TA01 contract has a large pressure above 4,800 yuan, and the processing fee should be operated within the 200 - 290 range [35]. - MEG - Bottle Chip: Maintain the idea of shorting at high prices. Consider shorting or selling call options above 3,900 yuan for the 01 contract [37]. - PP: PP is expected to maintain a low - level sideways movement due to weak spot prices and lack of upward drivers [39]. - PE: PE is expected to continue its supply - strong and demand - weak situation, and a put - option strategy can be considered [42]. - Pure Benzene and Styrene: Pay attention to the actual transaction of US - South Korea pure benzene and the domestic large - factory maintenance plan [44]. - Fuel Oil: The high - sulfur fuel oil cracking is expected to decline in the future, while the low - sulfur fuel oil cracking has an upward drive [45][47]. - Asphalt: Asphalt is expected to move sideways in the short term. Pay attention to the winter storage policy [49]. - Rubber and 20 - Rubber: The rubber system is expected to maintain a wide - range sideways movement, with light - colored rubber relatively stronger [51]. - Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda: Soda ash is expected to be weak; glass 01 contract will follow the reality, and pay attention to the cold - repair situation; caustic soda has weak supply - demand fundamentals [52][53][54]. - Pulp and Offset Paper: They are expected to maintain a sideways or sideways - weak movement in the short term [56]. - Log: The log market is expected to be sideways and weak. Consider shorting at high prices and 01 - 03 reverse - spread opportunities [57]. - Propylene: Propylene is under the weak pressure of PP, and the domestic supply remains loose [59].