沪铜日评20251128：美联储12月降息预期升温支撑铜价-20251128

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has increased, and there are production disruptions in multiple overseas copper mines, which may cause the Shanghai copper price to be cautiously bullish. The weak employment performance in the US has led to an increase in the probability of a Fed rate cut in December, and production disruptions in multiple domestic and foreign copper mines have made the import index of copper concentrates in China continuously negative, leading to a tight supply - demand expectation of domestic copper concentrates. Although the supply of scrap copper has increased and the processing fees of domestic crude copper or anode plates have risen, and the maintenance capacity of copper smelters in November has decreased month - on - month, the overall situation still supports a relatively strong copper price [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shanghai Copper Futures - Price and Volume Data: On November 27, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 86,990, up 400 from the previous day; the trading volume was 95,318 lots, down 11,895 lots; the open interest was 210,684 lots, up 5,956 lots; the inventory was 35,873 tons, down 3,952 tons. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper semi - average price was 87,085, up 430 [2]. - Basis and Premium Data: The Shanghai copper basis was 95, up 30; the SMM + water copper opening discount semi - average price was 55, up 20; the SMM premium copper opening discount semi - average price was 175, up 25; the SMM RMB Yangshan copper premium - average price was 283.12, down 0.07 [2]. - Spread Data: The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract of Shanghai copper was - 60, down 30; the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract was - 40, down 30; the spread between the second - continuous and the third - continuous contract was 10, down 30.001 [2]. 3.2 London Copper - Price and Spread Data: On November 27, 2025, the closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 10,930, down 23. The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 0, down 30.83; the LME copper futures 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 0, down 138.27. The ratio of Shanghai - London copper prices was 7.9588, up 0.05 [2]. 3.3 COMEX Copper - Price and Inventory Data: On November 26, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper futures was 5.2035, up 0.20. The total inventory was 417,666, up 8,281 [2]. 3.4 Supply, Demand and Inventory - Supply: There are production disruptions in multiple domestic and foreign copper mines, making the import index of copper concentrates in China continuously negative, leading to a tight supply - demand expectation of domestic copper concentrates. The supply of scrap copper has increased, and the processing fees of domestic crude copper or anode plates have risen. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in November has decreased month - on - month [2]. - Demand: The capacity utilization rates of copper wire and cable, copper enameled wire, copper enameled strip, copper tube, and brass rod have increased compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper rod has decreased compared with last week, and the capacity utilization rate of recycled copper rod has remained the same as last week [2]. - Inventory: The social inventory of electrolytic copper in China has decreased compared with last week, the inventory of electrolytic copper in the London Metal Exchange has increased compared with last week, and the inventory of COMEX copper has increased compared with last week [2]. 3.5 Trading Strategy - Short - term traders can lightly go long on the main contract at low prices. Pay attention to the support levels around 82,000 - 84,000 and the resistance levels around 88,000 - 90,000 for Shanghai copper; the support levels around 10,300 - 10,500 and the resistance levels around 11,000 - 11,500 for London copper; the support levels around 4.5 - 4.8 and the resistance levels around 5.2 - 5.5 for US copper [2].