2026 港股行业比较投资策略：乘势外资东风，锚定核心资产

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the improvement in PPI (Producer Price Index) will drive corporate profit recovery, which is a key factor for foreign capital returning to Chinese assets. The market may perceive cyclical goods as superior to technology during the PPI recovery phase, but the report argues that foreign capital is fundamentally buying assets with improved fundamentals, focusing on ROE (Return on Equity) recovery [3][10][4] - Historical analysis shows a strong positive correlation between the RMB exchange rate and PPI growth, indicating that a recovering Chinese economy leads to foreign capital inflows. During previous appreciation phases, both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks saw price increases, suggesting that the RMB is likely to appreciate in 2026, prompting foreign capital to reassess Chinese assets [3][10][4] - The report forecasts that during past PPI recovery phases, both A-share and Hong Kong stock ROE have shown significant improvement, with a clear positive correlation between PPI growth and corporate profitability. It is expected that ROE for both markets will continue to improve in 2026 as PPI rises [4][10] - From the perspective of foreign capital's historical investment preferences, profitability is a crucial consideration. The report notes that changes in ROE are highly correlated with foreign ownership in various sectors, indicating that sectors with strong competitive advantages are likely to attract more foreign investment [10] - The report highlights that foreign capital has been reassessing Chinese assets in 2025, with a notable increase in foreign participation in Hong Kong IPOs. The A-H premium is expected to continue narrowing, reflecting heightened foreign interest in core assets listed in Hong Kong [10] - The report identifies several sectors in Hong Kong that are expected to see ROE improvements in 2026, including power equipment, internet (AI industry core assets), and cyclical sectors, which are anticipated to benefit from demand recovery and pricing power [10] - The report also notes that domestic capital has room to increase its holdings in Hong Kong stocks, with significant portions of public funds allocated to Hong Kong equities, indicating potential for further investment [10] Industry Analysis - The report discusses the knife industry, highlighting that rising costs and demand are driving price increases, with major manufacturers announcing price hikes due to surging tungsten prices. This trend is expected to lead to sustained performance improvements for knife companies [12][15][16] - The report indicates that the knife industry has experienced multiple rounds of price adjustments in response to raw material cost pressures, with the latest round occurring in November. The demand from the electric vehicle supply chain is providing strong support for the knife market [15][16] - The report notes that the profitability of knife manufacturers has improved significantly in Q3 2025, with companies reporting substantial year-on-year revenue and profit growth, driven by earlier price increases and low-cost inventory [15][16] - The report suggests that the current market dynamics may lead to a consolidation of the industry, as smaller manufacturers face challenges due to rising raw material costs, potentially benefiting larger firms with stronger financial positions [15][16]