黑色建材日报-20251128

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel demand has officially entered the off - season. The price of steel products is likely to continue the weak shock in the short term, but with the implementation of policies and the improvement of the macro - environment, the steel demand is expected to have a marginal inflection point later [2]. - The iron ore price is expected to run within the shock range. If the molten iron output continues to decline, the ore price may decline periodically within the range [5]. - The ferroalloy price has declined significantly, but there is still hope for the positive impact of macro - events in December on the market sentiment. It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment [9]. - For the black sector, it may be more cost - effective to look for positions to do rebounds rather than continue to short [10]. - The industrial silicon price is expected to run in shock in the short term, paying attention to periodic emotional disturbances [14]. - The polysilicon price fluctuates widely within the range, and the focus is on the progress of the platform company and the price feedback of the industrial chain [16]. - The glass price is expected to continue the shock trend at the bottom, and the space for further decline is limited [19]. - The soda ash is expected to maintain a weak operation before the glass demand improves substantially [21]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3093 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (- 0.19%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 37919 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.069617 million lots, a decrease of 131083 lots month - on - month. In the spot market, the aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton month - on - month; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton month - on - month [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3293 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton (- 0.33%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 113732 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0 tons. The position of the main contract was 0.876319 million lots, a decrease of 58870 lots month - on - month. In the spot market, the aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton month - on - month; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3290 yuan/ton, with no change month - on - month [1]. Strategy Viewpoint - The supply and demand of rebar have both declined, and the inventory has been continuously depleted, showing a neutral overall performance. The output of hot - rolled coils has increased, the apparent demand has slightly declined, and the inventory has only been slightly depleted. South Korea's new anti - dumping tax policy will have a certain impact on steel exports. Overall, the steel demand has entered the off - season, and the inventory pressure of hot - rolled coils still exists. It is necessary to pay attention to the actual progress of the production reduction rhythm [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 799.50 yuan/ton, with a change of + 0.31% (+ 2.50). The position changed by - 5496 lots to 414300 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 934200 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 799 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 49.48 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.83% [4]. Strategy Viewpoint - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipping volume has decreased month - on - month. In the shipping end, the shipping volumes of Australia and Brazil have both decreased. The shipping volumes of the four major mines have all decreased month - on - month. The shipping volume of non - mainstream countries has increased to the highest level of the year, and the near - end arrival volume has increased month - on - month. In terms of demand, the daily average molten iron output was 2.3468 million tons, a decrease of 16000 tons month - on - month. Due to the weakening of demand and the decline of profits, the number of blast furnaces under maintenance has increased significantly, and the number of blast furnaces that can be restarted in a short time is low. The profitability rate of steel mills has fallen to the lowest level in the same period of the past three years, and the proportion of profitable steel mills is 35%. In the inventory end, the port inventory has increased month - on - month, and the steel mill inventory has been slightly consumed. Overall, the iron ore inventory is still high, but there are still structural contradictions, and the spot has certain support. The iron ore price is expected to run within the shock range, and if the molten iron output continues to decline, the ore price may decline periodically [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On November 27, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed down 0.07% at 5626 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5630 yuan/ton, converted to the disk price of 5820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton month - on - month, with a premium of 192 yuan/ton over the disk. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed down 0.48% at 5390 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5400 yuan/ton, with no change month - on - month, with a premium of 10 yuan/ton over the disk [7][8]. Strategy Viewpoint - In the past week, the market risk appetite has weakened comprehensively. The ferroalloy price has declined significantly, but with the change of market expectations and the possible end of the decline of coking coal prices, although the pressure of price decline still exists, there is hope for the positive impact of macro - events in December on the market sentiment. It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and the corresponding price inflection point, and pay attention to overseas emotional fluctuations. For the black sector, it may be more cost - effective to look for positions to do rebounds. The fundamentals of manganese silicon are not ideal, and attention should be paid to the situation of manganese ore. The fundamentals of ferrosilicon have no obvious contradictions and drivers, and the operability is relatively low [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - Market Information: The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) was 9115 yuan/ton, with a change of + 1.05% (+ 95). The weighted contract position changed by - 23518 lots to 409946 lots. In the spot market, the market price of non - oxygen - passing 553 in East China was 9350 yuan/ton, with no change month - on - month, and the basis of the main contract was 235 yuan/ton; the market price of 421 was 9800 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the basis of the main contract was - 115 yuan/ton after converting to the disk price [12]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The industrial silicon price rebounded slightly in the short term, and the support below was acceptable. The weekly output of industrial silicon continued the downward trend, and the supply continued to shrink. The weekly output of polysilicon declined, and the maintenance of some enterprise bases was carried out smoothly. The organic silicon raised the spot price after the industry joint price - support meeting, but the output did not reach the expected reduction amplitude. The net export in October decreased significantly. The cost - end factors provided support for the industrial silicon disk. Overall, the current situation of industrial silicon has not changed significantly, and the price is expected to run in shock in the short term, paying attention to periodic emotional disturbances [13][14]. Polysilicon - Market Information: The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) was 55235 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.18% (- 660). The weighted contract position changed by + 866 lots to 255238 lots. In the spot market, the average price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, with no change month - on - month; the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, with no change month - on - month; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.3 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.05 yuan/kg month - on - month, and the basis of the main contract was - 2935 yuan/ton [15]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Polysilicon is still in a tug - of - war between reality and expectation. The production schedule in November has decreased, and the weekly output data has gradually declined, and the production reduction expectation has been fulfilled. The downstream silicon wafer output is expected to decline month - on - month compared with October. In the future, the supply - demand pattern of polysilicon may improve marginally under the large - scale reduction of supply, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited. The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells have loosened, and the price pressure still exists under the weak demand. The upstream silicon material quotation is relatively firm, facing the price feedback pressure from the downstream. Under the weak reality background, the expectation of storage and the establishment of the platform company continue to tug at the disk, and the disk price is easy to fall or rise rapidly under the news disturbance. The focus in the future is still on the progress of the platform company and the price feedback of the industrial chain. In addition, the spread between near - and far - month contracts has intensified, and attention should be paid to the unstable risk caused by the rapid conversion of capital sentiment [16]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Market Information: On Thursday afternoon at 15:00, the main contract of glass closed at 1041 yuan/ton, up 0.39% (+ 4) on the day. The quotation of large plates in North China was 1070 yuan, with no change from the previous day; the quotation in Central China was 1080 yuan, with no change from the previous day. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 62.362 million boxes, a decrease of 0.941 million boxes (- 1.49%) month - on - month. The top 20 holders of long orders reduced their long positions by 70889 lots today, and the top 20 holders of short orders reduced their short positions by 59259 lots today [18]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The expectation of cold repair of glass production lines in December has increased, and the supply is expected to shrink to a certain extent. The downstream processing orders are insufficient, and enterprises mostly purchase on demand, resulting in a lack of strong support for prices. With the decline of soda ash prices, the market's expectation of glass prices has further weakened. Overall, the current glass valuation is at a relatively low level, and the glass price is expected to continue the shock trend at the bottom, and the space for further decline is limited [19]. Soda Ash - Market Information: On Thursday afternoon at 15:00, the main contract of soda ash closed at 1176 yuan/ton, up 0.09% (+ 1) on the day. The quotation of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1146 yuan, an increase of 1 yuan from the previous day. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.5874 million tons, a decrease of 57000 tons (- 1.49%) month - on - month. Among them, the inventory of heavy soda ash was 0.8468 million tons, a decrease of 40500 tons month - on - month, and the inventory of light soda ash was 0.7406 million tons, a decrease of 16500 tons month - on - month. The top 20 holders of long orders reduced their long positions by 8830 lots today, and the top 20 holders of short orders reduced their short positions by 9343 lots today [20]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Last week, some devices were under maintenance, driving the industry's operating rate to decline slightly, but it failed to reverse the market's oversupply situation. The demand shows differentiation. The demand for light soda ash is stable, and the tight local supply has pushed up the quotation. The demand for heavy soda ash is still weak, and the orders of glass factories in Shahe area are insufficient, and the price has been under pressure to decline several times this week. Although the rising coal price at the cost end provides certain support for soda ash, the high inventory and weak demand always constitute the main negative driving force. Before the glass demand improves substantially, the soda ash is expected to maintain a weak operation [21].