宝城期货国债期货早报（2025年11月28日）-20251128

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2603 is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is weak. The overall view is volatile consolidation, with the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts decreasing and the medium - and long - term expectation of monetary easing still existing [1]. - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is volatile consolidation. The overall short - term trend of Treasury bond futures is mainly volatile consolidation [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - For TL2603, the short - term is volatile, the medium - term is volatile, the intraday is weak, with a view of volatile consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts decreases while the medium - and long - term expectation of monetary easing still exists [1]. Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, yesterday's Treasury bond futures were volatile. From January to October, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 5950.29 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 1.9% but a decline in performance. Combined with the weakening of economic data such as consumption and investment in October, the future monetary policy environment is expected to be loose, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. However, there is no strong need for additional monetary policy at the end of the year, so the short - term upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is insufficient. Focus on the statement of monetary policy in the December key meeting [5].