国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20251128

Report Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Core Views The report offers trend judgments and analysis on various commodities, including gold, silver, copper, zinc, etc., based on their respective fundamentals and market news. For example, gold is affected by rising interest - rate cut expectations, while copper is supported by high long - term premium expectations [2][6][10]. Summary by Category Precious Metals - Gold: Rising interest - rate cut expectations [2][6] - Silver: Oscillating and adjusting [2] Base Metals - Copper: High long - term premium expectations support prices. The global copper market is expected to face a supply shortage in 2026 [2][10][12] - Zinc: Oscillating weakly [2][13] - Lead: Reduced inventory supports prices [2][17] - Tin: Supply is disrupted again [2][19] - Aluminum: Ranging within a certain interval [2][23] - Alumina: Rebounding from a low level [2][23] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][23] - Nickel: The inventory accumulation pace has slightly slowed down, with short - term disturbances from macro and news factors [2][26] - Stainless Steel: Steel prices are under pressure and oscillating at a low level, but the downside is limited [2][26] Energy Metals - Lithium Carbonate: The resumption of production by large manufacturers and less - than - expected inventory reduction put pressure on the upside [2][31] Industrial Metals - Industrial Silicon: Mainly oscillating within a range [2][34] - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to the position of the 2512 contract [2][35] Ferrous Metals - Iron Ore: Limited downstream demand and over - valued [2][38] - Rebar: Widely oscillating [2][40] - Hot - Rolled Coil: Widely oscillating [2][41] - Silicon Ferrosilicon: Widely oscillating due to market sentiment disturbances [2][45] - Manganese Ferrosilicon: Widely oscillating with firm ore prices [2][45] - Coke: Widely oscillating [2][49] - Coking Coal: Widely oscillating [2][49] Forest Products - Log: Weakly oscillating [2][51] Chemicals - Para - Xylene: Showing a weakening trend [2][55] - PTA: Showing a weakening trend [2][55] - MEG: Hold a long MEG and short PX position [2][55] - Rubber: Oscillating strongly [2][61] - Synthetic Rubber: Oscillating with fundamental pressure but valuation support [2][65] - Asphalt: Rising production and accelerating inventory reduction in the north [2][69] - LLDPE: Positive basis and still abundant supply [2][79] - PP: Do not chase short - term short positions, but there is still medium - term pressure [2][82] - Caustic Soda: Still under pressure [2][86] - Pulp: Oscillating [2][92] - Glass: Stable prices of raw sheets [2][99] - Methanol: Continuing the short - term rebound pattern [2][102] - Urea: Ranging, mainly following spot market sentiment during the day [2][107] - Styrene: Oscillating in the short term [2][110] - Soda Ash: Little change in the spot market [2][113] Energy - LPG: Strong external market and decent demand [2][116] - Propylene: Weakening demand support and limited upward driving force [2][117] Plastics - PVC: Oscillating at a low level [2][127] Fuels - Fuel Oil: Oscillating and consolidating, with short - term fluctuations narrowing [2][128] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Continuing the adjustment trend, with a slight rebound in the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the external spot market [2][128] Shipping - Container Freight Index (European Line): Oscillating at a low level [2][130] Fibers - Staple Fiber: Oscillating in the short term and under pressure in the medium term [2][143] - Bottle Chip: Oscillating in the short term and under pressure in the medium term [2][143] Paper - Offset Printing Paper: Oscillating at a low level [2][146] Aromatics - Pure Benzene: Mainly oscillating in the short term [2][151] Oils and Fats - Palm Oil: Reduced trading on high - yield margins and a technical rebound [2][155] - Soybean Oil: Ranging within a certain interval [2][155] Grains and Oilseeds - Soybean Meal: The US soybean market is closed for Thanksgiving, lacking guidance [2][162] - Soybean: Stable spot prices and oscillating futures prices [2][163] - Corn: Oscillating strongly [2][166] Sweeteners - Sugar: Ranging and consolidating [2][170] Textiles - Cotton: Pay attention to the trend of the spot basis [2][175] Livestock and Poultry - Egg: Increased elimination volume and expected support [2][180] - Pig: Position - limit policies drive the divergence between near - term futures and spot prices [2][182] Nuts - Peanut: Pay attention to the spot market [2][186]