高硫稳定弱势，低硫供应较预期增长

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Low-sulfur fuel oil supply has increased more than expected, and attention should be paid to the impact of refinery device changes on supply. The low-sulfur supply gap disturbance has subsided, and the expected low-sulfur output has significantly increased. The low-sulfur winter power generation demand currently has no driving force [4]. - High-sulfur fuel oil is expected to remain stable and weak in the fourth quarter. Although Russian energy facilities have been attacked, the overall high-sulfur export volume has not been significantly affected. The near - term high - sulfur export from Mexico has significantly rebounded. The fuel feed demand has weakened month - on - month [4]. - For trading strategies, both high - and low - sulfur fuel oils are in a weak and volatile state. It is not recommended to go long for now. The low - sulfur cracking has weakened, and the high - sulfur cracking remains stable at a low level. It is advisable to take a wait - and - see approach for options [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Supply has increased more than expected. The resumption of oilfield operations and exports in South Sudan has eliminated the supply gap disturbance. Refinery device changes in various regions, such as the early and extended maintenance of Dangote refinery's RFCC device and the delay of primary processing device maintenance, are affecting supply. The low - sulfur winter power generation demand lacks driving force [4]. - High - sulfur fuel oil: It is expected to remain stable and weak in the fourth quarter. Russian high - sulfur exports are slightly affected by the attacks, and Mexican high - sulfur exports have rebounded. The fuel feed demand has weakened due to the expected early issuance of crude oil quotas in 2026 [4]. 3.1.2 Strategies - Unilateral trading: Both high - and low - sulfur fuel oils are in a weak and volatile state, and it is not recommended to go long [5]. - Arbitrage: Low - sulfur cracking has weakened, and high - sulfur cracking remains stable at a low level [5]. - Options: Take a wait - and - see approach [5]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Supply - Russia: Energy facilities have been continuously attacked, but the overall high - sulfur export volume has not been significantly affected. Some refineries have been damaged, and the export volume has slightly decreased month - on - month. The EU is planning the 20th round of sanctions against Russia [8][9]. - Mexico: The near - term high - sulfur export has significantly rebounded. The Tula coking unit has been put into operation, and the Olmeca refinery has frequently adjusted its maintenance plan. The high - sulfur output is expected to gradually decrease [13]. - Middle East: The US sanctions against Iran continue. After the demand subsides, the high - sulfur export has increased. Iraq plans to supply more than 6 million tons of high - sulfur fuel oil from January to June 2026 [18][19]. 3.2.2 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Demand - Feed demand: The expected early issuance of crude oil quotas in 2026 has weakened the high - sulfur feed demand. The actual logistics arrival volume has not increased significantly in the context of the fourth - quarter crude oil quota gap [23][24]. - Marine fuel demand: It provides stable support, and the marginal increase comes from the stable growth of the number of ships equipped with desulfurization towers [28]. - Power generation demand: It has completely subsided, especially in Egypt and Saudi Arabia [31]. 3.2.3 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Supply - Pan - Singapore region: The expected excess supply is gradually decreasing with the increase in RFCC device operation rates. The return of the Malaysian Rapid refinery's RFCC device has been delayed, and the Indonesian Balikpapan refinery is planning to expand its gasoline production [34][36]. - Sudan: The low - sulfur crude oil supply was briefly interrupted and then resumed. The low - sulfur crude oil has been redirected to the Pan - Singapore region [37][38]. - Nigeria: The low - sulfur export supply has increased more than expected. The Dangote refinery has adjusted its device maintenance plan, and the low - sulfur export is expected to increase significantly in December [39][41]. - Middle East: The return of the Al - Zour refinery's devices has been delayed, and there is still a short - term supply gap [42][44]. 3.2.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Demand - There is no specific driver. The marine fuel demand is stable, and the power generation economy is inferior to that of natural gas [45]. 3.2.5 China's Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Market - The bonded low - sulfur export quota in the fourth quarter has tightened. The overall quota in 2025 has slightly decreased compared to 2024. The quota usage rate as of October is about 81%, and the remaining quota in the fourth quarter is expected to be tight but still sufficient [50]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking 3.3.1 Fuel Oil Spot - There are charts showing the price trends of Brent crude oil, HSFO380, LSFO, and their spreads with Brent crude oil [54][55][57]. 3.3.2 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Cross - Region and Cross - Period Spreads - There are charts showing spreads such as ARA Brent Crack, Singapore high - sulfur M1 - M2, and HSFO380 spot discounts [60][61][63]. 3.3.3 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Cross - Region and Cross - Variety Spreads - There are charts showing spreads such as Singapore LSFO - GO, LSFO M1 - M2, and Singapore low - sulfur spot discounts [67][68]. 3.3.4 Natural Gas - Fuel Oil Price Ratio - The report provides data on the equal - calorific - value price ratio of various fuels, including Singapore 380, Singapore 180, Singapore 0.5%, JKM, GO10ppm ARA, and TTF [70][71]. 3.3.5 Cross - Region Freight Reference - There are charts showing freight rates from Russia to Singapore, Rotterdam to Singapore, etc. [73][74]. 3.3.6 Singapore Bunkering Spreads - There are charts showing spreads such as Singapore HSFO Exwharf - MOPS and Singapore LSFO Exwharf - MOPS [76][77]. 3.3.7 Fuel Oil Inventory Structure - There are charts showing the inventory trends of fuel oil in Singapore, ARA, Fujairah, Japan, and the US [79][80][81]. 3.3.8 Northwest Europe Inventory Structure - There are charts showing the inventory trends of gasoline, diesel, and refined oil in ARA [86][87]. 3.3.9 US Gulf Inventory Structure - There are charts showing the inventory trends of gasoline, diesel, Cushing crude oil, and commercial crude oil in the US [89][90].