中辉农产品观点-20251128

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not explicitly mentioned in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term outlook: - Soybean Meal: Short - term bullish and volatile, but the upward space of the main contract is limited [1]. - Rapeseed Meal: Short - term consolidation, with long - term supply - demand fundamentals being strong, and there are opportunities to go long on far - month contracts at low prices [1]. - Palm Oil: Weak consolidation in the short term, and the recent rise is considered a rebound, with the option to gradually take profits [1]. - Soybean Oil: Short - term oscillation, with opportunities to go long after adjustment and stabilization [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: Short - term bullish, and short - selling should be cautious [1]. - Cotton: Cautiously bullish, with short - term prices expected to test the 13700 - 13800 level and long - term opportunities for a gentle rebound after supply pressure eases [1]. - Red Dates: Rebound under pressure, with a generally bearish attitude in the long run, and short - term observation is recommended [1]. - Live Pigs: Short - term rebound, with opportunities to short on rebounds for near - month contracts and long on pull - backs for far - month contracts after the release of selling pressure [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - Market data: As of November 21, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 942500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 50100 tons; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 714990 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 32720 tons; the soybean meal inventory was 115150 tons, a week - on - week increase of 15860 tons [3]. - Analysis: South American planting progress is slower than last year, and rainfall is expected to be below normal. Domestic supply is abundant, but the sales pressure of oil mills has decreased. The issue of US soybean import tariffs remains unresolved, and short - term prices are bullish and volatile [1][3]. Rapeseed Meal - Market data: As of November 21, the coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 0 tons, the rapeseed meal inventory was 10 tons, and the unfulfilled contracts were 10 tons [6]. - Analysis: The global rapeseed production has recovered this year. The domestic spot market has slow - moving sales and high inventory pressure. The short - term trend is consolidation, and attention should be paid to the impact of soybean meal and Sino - Canadian trade relations [1][6]. Palm Oil - Market data: As of November 21, 2025, the national key area palm oil commercial inventory was 667100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13900 tons. The export data from November 1 - 25 was weak, but the decline was slightly reduced compared to the first 20 days [7][8]. - Analysis: The short - term supply - demand situation is weak, and the recent rise is a rebound. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in November, and it is advisable to consider taking profits [1][8]. Cotton - Market data: In the international market, the US new cotton harvest progress is 79%, and 1237000 tons have been inspected; India's new cotton daily listing volume is 16000 - 20000 tons; Brazil's 2025 cotton processing progress is 73.87%. In the domestic market, the new cotton picking is almost completed, with a public inspection volume of over 3.7 million tons, and the sales progress is relatively fast [9][10][11]. - Analysis: The supply - side narrative space is narrowing, and the market is trading around interest - rate cut expectations. Domestic downstream cash flow has improved, but high inventory and hedging pressure limit the upward space [1][12]. Red Dates - Market data: The current inventory of 36 sample enterprises is 10848 tons, a week - on - week increase of 518 tons [13]. - Analysis: The new - season production is expected to be 500000 - 600000 tons, with an oversupply situation. The short - term trend is a rebound under pressure, and short - term observation is recommended [1][14]. Live Pigs - Market data: As of November 20, the group's overall slaughter progress is 65.67%. The national sample enterprise pig inventory is 3844620, and the slaughter volume is 11965300 [15][16]. - Analysis: The current supply - demand situation is weak. Near - month contracts have short - term rebound opportunities, and attention should be paid to short - selling on rebounds and long - buying on pull - backs for far - month contracts after the release of selling pressure [1][16].