FICC日报：美联储褐皮书发布，英国股债汇同步承压-20251128

Report Industry Investment Rating - Commodities and stock index futures: Overall neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The domestic economic foundation still needs to be consolidated, with the "15th Five - Year Plan" boosting market sentiment, but economic data showing slowdowns [2] - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has increased, and the Fed's next - step policy is affected by candidates for the Fed chair [2] - Japan has experienced a "triple kill" in stocks, bonds, and the exchange rate, and the eurozone's financial stability is at risk [2] - In the current inflation - expectation game stage, focus on the more certain non - ferrous metals and precious metals sectors [2] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Domestic economic news includes the release of the "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal, Sino - US economic and trade achievements, and various policy meetings. Economic data shows slowdowns in manufacturing, exports, investment, consumption, and industry [2] - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has jumped from less than 30% on November 20th to over 70%. US economic data shows mixed signals, and the release of some data is postponed. The next Fed chair candidate may impact monetary policy [2] - Japan has a "triple kill" in stocks, bonds, and the exchange rate. The eurozone's manufacturing PMI has declined, and the European Central Bank warns of financial stability risks. The UK's OBR has adjusted GDP growth forecasts [2] - For commodities, focus on non - ferrous metals and precious metals. The black sector is dragged by downstream demand, the non - ferrous sector is boosted by global easing expectations, and the energy sector has a relatively loose supply in the medium - term [2] Strategy - The rating for commodities and stock index futures is overall neutral [3] Key News - Multiple important events are reported, such as the meeting on price disorderly competition cost determination, the extension of US tariffs exemption, the release of China's military control white paper, and the Fed's and European Central Bank's reports [5]