Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon have not changed significantly, with both supply and demand being weak. For industrial silicon, after production cuts in the southwest, the supply - demand pattern may improve, and the valuation is currently low. If there are relevant policies, the market may rise. For polysilicon, both supply and demand have weakened, with large inventory pressure and average consumer - end performance, and the market is expected to fluctuate mainly [1][3][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On November 27, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price showed a strong - side fluctuating trend. The main contract 2601 opened at 9000 yuan/ton and closed at 9115 yuan/ton, a change of 120 yuan/ton (1.33%) from the previous day's settlement. The open interest of the 2511 main contract was 237,648 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 39,555 lots, a change of - 870 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9500 - 9600 (50) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9700 - 9900 (50) yuan/ton. The price of Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8800 - 9000 (0) yuan/ton, and the price of 99 silicon was 8800 - 9000 (0) yuan/ton. The silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, the Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained flat, and the price of 97 silicon was stable [1]. - As of November 27, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 550,000 tons, an increase of 2000 tons from the previous week. Among them, the inventory in ordinary social warehouses was 129,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week, and the inventory in social delivery warehouses was 421,000 tons (including unregistered warehouse receipts and spot inventory), an increase of 2000 tons from the previous week [1]. Consumption End - The quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 13,100 - 13,300 (0) yuan/ton. This week, the domestic organic silicon DMC market price continued to move slightly upward. The current quoted price range was 13,100 - 13,300 yuan/ton, an increase of about 100 yuan/ton from the average price of the previous week. The DMC quoted price of Shandong monomer enterprises was 13,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the DMC quoted prices of other domestic monomer enterprises were concentrated at 13,200 - 13,300 yuan/ton, with individual enterprises also increasing their quotes by 100 yuan/ton [2]. Strategy - The spot price remains stable. After production cuts in the southwest, the supply - demand pattern may improve. The industrial silicon market is currently affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy - end news. Attention should be paid to whether there are relevant capacity - exit policies. Currently, the valuation of industrial silicon is low, and if there is policy promotion, the market may have room to rise. - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, and long positions can be taken on dips for contracts during the dry season. - Inter - period: None. - Inter - variety: None. - Futures - cash: None. - Options: None [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On November 27, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures fluctuated widely, opening at 56,195 yuan/ton and closing at 55,235 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.91% from the previous trading day. The open interest of the main contract reached 141,586 (143,043 in the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume on that day was 324,070 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon weakened slightly. The price of N - type material was 49.70 - 54.90 (0.05) yuan/kg, and the price of n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 (0.00) yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest statistics showed that the polysilicon inventory was 28.10 (a 3.69% change from the previous period), the silicon wafer inventory was 19.50GW (a 4.17% change from the previous period), the weekly polysilicon output was 24,000.00 tons (a - 11.40% change from the previous period), and the silicon wafer output was 12.02GW (a - 5.95% change from the previous period) [4][5]. - In terms of silicon wafers, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.18 (- 0.03) yuan/piece, the price of N - type 210mm silicon wafers was 1.53 (- 0.03) yuan/piece, and the price of N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.23 (- 0.03) yuan/piece. The polysilicon output in October was expected to be about 133,500 tons, an increase from September, exceeding market expectations. In November, there will be significant production cuts in the southwest region, and the output is expected to decline [5]. - In terms of battery cells, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 (0.00) yuan/W; the price of PERC210 battery cells was about 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; the price of TopconM10 battery cells was about 0.29 (0.00) yuan/W; the price of Topcon G12 battery cells was 0.29 (0.00) yuan/W; the price of Topcon210RN battery cells was 0.27 (0.00) yuan/W; and the price of HJT210 half - piece battery cells was 0.37 (0.00) yuan/W [5]. - In terms of components, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, the mainstream transaction price of PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, the mainstream transaction price of N - type 182mm was 0.66 - 0.68 (0.00) yuan/W, and the mainstream transaction price of N - type 210mm was 0.68 - 0.69 (0.00) yuan/W [6]. Strategy - Both supply and demand of polysilicon have weakened, with large overall inventory pressure and average consumer - end performance. In November, old warehouse receipts were cancelled, and few new warehouse receipts were registered, resulting in more delivery games for near - month contracts. Currently, the market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and the policies are still being promoted, with large market fluctuations. Participants need to pay attention to risk management. It is expected that the market will mainly fluctuate. - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton. - Inter - period: None. - Inter - variety: None. - Futures - cash: None. - Options: None [7][8].
新能源及有色金属日报：供需双弱，工业硅多晶硅基本面变化不大-20251128
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-11-28 05:28