丙烯日报：主力下游开工回落，关注成本端扰动-20251128

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; the supply - demand gap narrows, but the cost - side support is insufficient and the upward drive is limited. It is expected to mainly fluctuate weakly at the bottom [3] 2. Core View of the Report - On the supply side, the restart of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical's cracking unit and the maintenance of Sinochem Quanzhou and Shanghai Petrochemical's units led to a slight overall increase in propylene start - up. The maintenance of the PDH unit of Juzhengyuan in South China had limited impact on supply. The restart of Hebei Haiwei's PDH unit was postponed, and the external sales volume of propylene products may continue to increase. On the demand side, the start - up of some downstream industries rebounded, but the profit of downstream industries was under pressure due to the rising propylene price. The spread between PP and propylene narrowed, and the downstream was resistant to high - priced raw materials. The start - up rate of the main downstream PP decreased month - on - month. The price of propylene oxide dropped significantly, and the procurement enthusiasm decreased under cost pressure, weakening the expected support for propylene demand. The international oil price rebounded slightly in the short - term, but there was still a long - term pressure of oversupply. The supply of propane from the Middle East to China was tight, and the price of external propane strengthened slightly recently. The report suggests paying attention to cost - side disturbances [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - Propylene: The closing price of the propylene main contract was 5,798 yuan/ton (-22), the spot price in East China was 5,995 yuan/ton (-5), the spot price in North China was 6,050 yuan/ton (-25), the basis in East China was 197 yuan/ton (+17), the basis in North China was 179 yuan/ton (-43), the start - up rate was 74% (+1%), the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR was 192 US dollars/ton (+18), the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR was 67 US dollars/ton (+11), the import profit was - 354 yuan/ton (-86), and the in - plant inventory was 48,970 tons (+3,930) [1] - Propylene downstream: The start - up rate of PP powder was 42% (-4.20%), and the production profit was - 310 yuan/ton (+55); the start - up rate of propylene oxide was 75% (+0%), and the production profit was 136 yuan/ton (+91); the start - up rate of n - butanol was 82% (+1%), and the production profit was - 263 yuan/ton (+66); the start - up rate of octanol was 81% (+4%), and the production profit was 72 yuan/ton (+118); the start - up rate of acrylic acid was 77% (+4%), and the production profit was 444 yuan/ton (+4); the start - up rate of acrylonitrile was 81% (+1%), and the production profit was - 443 yuan/ton (+21); the start - up rate of phenol - acetone was 81% (+2%), and the production profit was - 415 yuan/ton (+0) [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - Supply side: The restart of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical's cracking unit and the maintenance of Sinochem Quanzhou and Shanghai Petrochemical's units led to a slight overall increase in propylene start - up. The maintenance of the PDH unit of Juzhengyuan in South China had limited impact on supply. The restart of Hebei Haiwei's PDH unit was postponed, and attention should be paid to its restart expectation in the later stage, with the external sales volume of propylene products possibly continuing to increase [2] - Demand side: The start - up of some downstream industries rebounded, with significant increases in the start - up rates of acrylic acid and octanol. However, considering the rising propylene price, the downstream profit was under pressure, and the spread between PP and propylene narrowed. The downstream was resistant to high - priced raw materials, and some main powder units reduced their loads or stopped production. The price of propylene oxide dropped significantly, and the procurement enthusiasm decreased under cost pressure, weakening the expected support for propylene demand [2] - Cost side: The international oil price rebounded slightly, but there was still a long - term pressure of oversupply. The supply of propane from the Middle East to China was tight, and the price of external propane strengthened slightly recently. Attention should be paid to cost - side disturbances [2] 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral; the supply - demand gap narrows, but the cost - side support is insufficient and the upward drive is limited. It is expected to mainly fluctuate weakly at the bottom [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3]