冠通期货资讯早间报-20251128

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Morgan Stanley has upgraded the investment rating of the Chinese stock market to "overweight" [34] 2. Core Viewpoints - The overnight night - market saw mixed trends in various futures and financial markets. International and domestic policies and market conditions have significant impacts on different industries [5][6][34] 3. Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Trends - International precious metal futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold down 0.3% at $4189.6/oz and COMEX silver up 0.41% at $53.825/oz, driven by Fed rate - cut expectations, a weaker dollar, and differentiated industrial demand [5] - US oil and Brent crude futures rose, with the US oil main contract up 0.77% at $59.10/barrel and Brent crude up 0.61% at $62.92/barrel. OPEC+ may confirm a suspension of production increases in early 2026 [6] - Most London base metals fell, with LME aluminum down 1.13% at $2831.50/ton, LME zinc down 1.08% at $3022.00/ton, etc., while LME lead rose 0.51% at $1983.50/ton [6] - Domestic futures contracts also showed mixed trends, with glass, rubber, etc. rising and coke, etc. falling [6] Important News Macroeconomic News - The US will extend the tariff exemption on China until November 10, 2026 [9] - The NDRC will address disorderly price competition in some industries [9] - From January to October, the total profit of large - scale industrial enterprises in China was 5.95029 trillion yuan, up 1.9% year - on - year, but in October, it was down 5.5% year - on - year [10] - The SAMR will strengthen anti - monopoly law enforcement and fair competition review [10] - Russian President Putin said the US peace plan could be the basis for a Ukraine agreement, and the US delegation will visit Moscow next week [10] Energy and Chemical Futures - As of November 27, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers decreased by 1.75% week - on - week [13] - The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises decreased by 1.49% week - on - week [13] - Thailand's rubber production may decrease by up to 90,000 tons due to floods [13] - Singapore's fuel oil inventory reached a two - week high [14] - OPEC+ may keep oil production levels unchanged and reach an agreement on evaluating member countries' maximum production capacity [15] - Angola plans to cut oil exports to 966,000 barrels per day in January [16] Metal Futures - The FIMI in India calls for canceling the 15% export tariff on low - grade bauxite [18] - The copper price on COMEX may have a premium over LME due to uncertain US copper tariffs [18] - Some silicon wafer enterprises have started production cuts, and most plan to further reduce the operating load in December [20] - China's new energy storage installed capacity exceeds 100 million kilowatts [20] - Many experts predict that the gold price will continue to rise in 2026, with a forecast range of $4000 - $5300 [20] - On November 27, 2025, 30,000 tons of alumina were traded at $311.5/ton FOB East Australia for December shipment [21] Black - Series Futures - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines decreased by 0.9% week - on - week [23] - As of November 27, the output and apparent demand of rebar both declined, and the factory and social inventories continued to decline [23] - Ping'an Iron and Steel and Liansteel will carry out maintenance, affecting production [23] - As of November 26, the coal inventory of national unified - regulated power plants exceeded 230 million tons [25] - Market participants believe that Vanke's debt repayment pressure has entered the market - oriented disposal stage [25] - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was 46 yuan/ton [25] Agricultural Futures - Indonesia exported 2.2 million tons of palm oil in September, lower than last year and August this year [27] - Malaysia's palm oil exports to China decreased by about 29% in the first 10 months of this year [28] - As of November 26, 2025, the corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions decreased by 1.06% [29] - Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 25 were expected to be 583,574 tons, a 40.77% decrease from the same period last month [30] - Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production is expected to reach a record 178 million tons [32] - Brazil's soybean, bean粕, and corn exports last week and this week's plans are provided [32] Financial Markets Financial - A - shares rose and then fell, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.29%, and the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index down [34] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.07%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.36% [34] - Morgan Stanley upgraded the investment rating of the Chinese stock market to "overweight" [34] - As of November 27, 96 fund managers issued purchase restriction announcements for over 340 products [35] - As of November 27, 400 A - share listed companies issued private placement plans this year [36] - Tencent Holdings repurchased HK$636 million worth of shares on November 26 [36] - Avita Technology submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [36] Industry - The NDRC studied formulating cost - determination standards for disorderly price competition [37] - As of October, the private fund scale reached 22.05 trillion yuan [37] - Six major banks stopped selling five - year large - denomination certificates of deposit [37] - In November, 184 game licenses were issued, and 1624 were issued in 2025 [37] - 15 enterprises were selected for the first batch of leading - level intelligent factories in China [39] - The SAMR carried out anti - unfair competition compliance guidance for mobile phone enterprises [39] - The NDRC revised the power transmission and distribution cost supervision and pricing methods [39] - Beijing plans to build a large - scale data center in space [39] - In October, Japan's chip equipment sales reached 413.88 billion yen, up 7.3% year - on - year [39] Overseas - Russia's Putin said the US delegation will visit Moscow next week, and Russia generally agrees to use the US solution for Ukraine as the basis for negotiation [40] - Ukraine and the US negotiation teams are expected to meet soon, and Ukraine hopes for a cease - fire [40] - The Bank of Korea kept the benchmark interest rate at 2.5% and raised GDP and inflation forecasts [42] - The ECB strengthened the market's expectation that the interest - rate cut cycle has ended [42] International Stocks - US stocks were closed on Thursday due to the Thanksgiving holiday [43] - European stocks rose slightly, with the German DAX index up 0.18%, the French CAC40 index up 0.04%, and the UK FTSE 100 index up 0.02% [43] - The Japanese stock market continued to rise, with the Nikkei 225 index up 1.23%, and the South Korean Composite Index up 0.66% [43] Commodities - International precious metal futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold down 0.3% and COMEX silver up 0.41% [44] - US oil and Brent crude futures rose, with the US oil main contract up 0.77% and Brent crude up 0.61% [44] - Most London base metals fell, with LME aluminum down 1.13%, etc., and LME lead up 0.51% [46] - OPEC may maintain oil production levels and reach an agreement on evaluating member countries' maximum production capacity [46] - Goldman Sachs predicts that the gold price may reach $4900/oz next year and recommends going long on gold [47] Bonds - The domestic bond market was weak, with interest - rate bond yields rising and most treasury bond futures falling [47] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange held a symposium on green bonds and ESG bonds [47] Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.0806 on Thursday, down 4 points, and the RMB central parity rate was up 17 points [48] - The US dollar index fell 0.03%, and non - US currencies showed mixed trends [50]