聚烯烃日报：需求延续疲态，下游开工环比继续回落-20251128

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The demand for polyolefins continues to be weak, and the downstream开工率 has declined month - on - month. The market is facing challenges due to the approaching demand off - season and the continuous release of supply from existing plants. The short - term upward driving force is insufficient, and the market may fluctuate weakly at the bottom [1][4]. - The supply and demand situation of PE and PP is complex. PE has supply pressure due to new capacity release and weakening demand, while PP has a weak supply - demand reality in the short term, with limited improvement from current maintenance on the supply - side surplus [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - Price and Basis: The closing price of the L main contract is 6699 yuan/ton (- 8), and that of the PP main contract is 6295 yuan/ton (+ 30). LL and PP have different price and basis changes in different regions [2]. - Upstream Supply: The PE开工率 is 84.5% (+ 1.8%), and the PP开工率 is 78.1% (- 0.1%) [2]. - Production Profit: PE oil - based production profit is 329.9 yuan/ton (- 49.2), PP oil - based production profit is - 460.1 yuan/ton (- 49.2), and PDH - based PP production profit is - 475.5 yuan/ton (- 37.9) [2]. - Import and Export: LL import profit is 51.8 yuan/ton (+ 42.8), PP import profit is - 199.8 yuan/ton (+ 32.8), and PP export profit is - 20.9 US dollars/ton (- 23.8) [2]. - Downstream Demand: The PE downstream agricultural film开工率 is 49.0% (- 0.9%), the PE downstream packaging film开工率 is 50.7% (- 0.2%), the PP downstream plastic weaving开工率 is 44.1% (- 0.1%), and the PP downstream BOPP film开工率 is 62.6% (+ 0.0%) [2]. Market Analysis - PE: The supply pressure remains due to device overhauls and new capacity release, while the demand is entering the off - season, with high inventory - clearing pressure. The cost support from oil - based production is weak [3]. - PP: The supply - demand situation is weakly real in the short term, with the basis fluctuating at a low level. Temporary overhauls relieve some supply pressure, but the demand is insufficient, and the cost support from oil - based and PDH production is increasing [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. The market may fluctuate weakly at the bottom due to the off - season demand and continuous supply release [4]. - Inter - period: Conduct high - level reverse arbitrage for L01 - 05 and PP01 - 05 [4]. - Inter - product: No strategy is provided [4].