沪胶，宽幅震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai rubber futures are expected to continue the wide - range volatile pattern. The current supply has a seasonal contraction expectation, the demand remains optimistic, and the concentrated delivery of old rubber warehouse receipts provides some support for the rubber price. The market is expected to show a volatile and stable trend, and attention should be paid to marginal changes such as Southeast Asian weather, domestic automobile and tire industry demand recovery, and inventory accumulation speed [2][4] Summary by Related Content Market Trend - Recently, the Shanghai rubber futures have shown a range - bound consolidation trend, with the main contract 2601 fluctuating widely between 15,000 - 15,600 yuan/ton [2] Macroeconomic Impact - The release of the weak US September non - farm payrolls data has cooled the global financial market risk appetite and increased the expectation of global demand shrinkage. Since the demand side of Shanghai rubber highly depends on tire exports, the weakening global economy will directly weaken the overseas tire market demand and drag down the fundamental support [2] Supply Situation - The Southeast Asian main producing areas are in the peak tapping season. The glue production in northeastern Thailand is steadily increasing, while the southern part has more rainfall, which intermittently hinders tapping operations. The domestic Yunnan and Hainan rubber - producing areas will gradually stop tapping in December, and although the domestic glue output accounts for less than 6% of the global total, the event will relieve the pressure on the whole latex market from the emotional and local supply sides [2] Inventory Status - The rubber inventories inside and outside the Qingdao Free Trade Zone have accumulated for 3 consecutive weeks, reaching 452,600 tons in mid - November. However, the concentrated delivery of old rubber warehouse receipts last week pushed the inventory to a new low in recent years. As of the week of November 28, 2025, the weekly inventory of Shanghai rubber futures dropped to 78,675 tons, a significant weekly decrease of 79,463 tons, a 41.16% decline from the average of the past 3 years; the weekly registered warehouse receipts dropped to 39,600 tons, a significant weekly decrease of 68,870 tons, a 63.73% decline from the average of the past 3 years [3] Demand Situation - The core area of rubber demand is the tire industry, which is highly related to the automobile market. In October 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 3.359 million and 3.322 million vehicles respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 2.5% and 3%, and a year - on - year increase of 12.1% and 8.8%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative automobile production and sales were 27.692 million and 27.687 million vehicles respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 13.2% and 12.4%. The domestic heavy - truck market has maintained a high - growth rhythm, with sales of about 93,000 vehicles in October 2025, a year - on - year increase of 40%, and the cumulative sales from January to October reaching 916,000 vehicles, with the annual sales likely to exceed one million and even approach 1.1 million [3][4]