新世纪期货交易提示（2025-11-28）-20251128

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron Ore: Volatile [2] - Coking Coal and Coke: Volatile and Weakening [2] - Rolled Steel and Rebar: Volatile [2] - Glass: Volatile [2] - Shanghai Composite 50 Index Futures/Options: Volatile [3] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Volatile [3] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Rebounding [3] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Rebounding [3] - 2 - Year Treasury Bonds: Volatile [3] - 5 - Year Treasury Bonds: Volatile [3] - 10 - Year Treasury Bonds: Upward [3] - Gold: Volatile and Bullish [4] - Silver: Volatile and Bullish [4] - Logs: Bottom - Hunting [4] - Pulp: Volatile and Weakening [7] - Offset Paper: Volatile and Weakening [7] - Soybean Oil: Range - bound [6] - Palm Oil: Range - bound [6] - Rapeseed Oil: Range - bound [6] - Soybean Meal: Volatile [6] - Rapeseed Meal: Volatile [6] - Soybean No. 2: Volatile [6] - Soybean No. 1: Volatile [6] - Live Pigs: Volatile and Bullish [8] - Rubber: Volatile [10] - PX: Volatile [10] - PTA: Volatile [10] - MEG: Widely Volatile [10] - PR: Wait - and - See [10] - PF: Wait - and - See [10] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various industries. Some industries are facing supply - demand imbalances, while others are affected by policy, geopolitical, and seasonal factors. The market is generally in a state of volatility, and short - term and long - term influencing factors need to be comprehensively considered for investment decisions [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Black Industry - Iron Ore: Global iron ore shipments decreased by 238.0 tons to 3278.4 tons, while 47 - port foreign ore arrivals increased by 569.6 tons to 2939.5 tons. Daily hot metal production decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.68 tons. The demand core lies in the real estate sector, with new construction starts at 2005 levels and weak domestic demand. Port iron ore inventories rose slightly to an 8 - month high. The supply - demand surplus pattern is hard to reverse, and although steel mill profits are squeezed, short - term self - initiated production cuts are unlikely, so iron ore prices will mainly fluctuate at high levels [2] - Coking Coal and Coke: Affected by Mongolia's import target and the heating - season supply guarantee meeting, the coking coal and coke futures prices dropped significantly. Although the fourth round of price increases by coking enterprises has been implemented, profit repair is limited, and there are obvious differences in sentiment regarding the fifth round. Pit - mouth coking coal prices are high, and coking plants are under cost pressure and have low production intentions. Supply concerns in the coking coal industry are intensifying, and the supply - demand situation may become loose again, with prices adjusting weakly in the short term [2] - Rolled Steel and Rebar: Downstream demand is sluggish, and winter storage replenishment has not started. The core lies in steel demand, with real estate new construction at 2005 levels and weak domestic demand. Steel prices will stop falling depending on the implementation of a more than 5% production cut in Q4 2025 and the intensity of anti - "involution" policies. Currently, steel prices will remain at the bottom and fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the impact of December's macro - policy expectations on winter storage [2] - Glass: News of cold repairs in Hubei continued to ferment, which will reduce delivery pressure. Real - estate completion is declining, dragging down demand, and enterprise inventories are increasing. To solve the industry - wide surplus problem, the daily melting volume needs to drop to about 15.4 tons by the end of the year. Attention should be paid to whether macro - factors and production - line cold repairs can bring a turning point for prices to stop falling and stabilize [2][3] Financial - Stock Index Futures/Options: The previous trading day saw the CSI 300 index down 0.05%, the SSE 50 index up 0.02%, the CSI 500 index down 0.20%, and the CSI 1000 index up 0.12%. Some sectors had capital inflows or outflows. The State Council held a meeting to discuss relevant work, and the NDRC introduced infrastructure REITs expansion and addressed the development of the embodied - intelligence industry. The market is in short - term adjustment but remains optimistic in the medium term, with the high - tech industry growing [3] - Treasury Bonds: The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds was flat, and the central bank conducted 3564 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 564 billion yuan. Treasury bond spot rates were consolidating, and the market showed a slight rebound [3] Precious Metals - Gold and Silver: In the context of high - interest rates and globalization reconstruction, the pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to central - bank gold purchases. Gold's de - fiat - currency attribute is prominent, and its sensitivity to US Treasury real interest rates has decreased. Geopolitical risks and Chinese physical - gold demand support prices. The logic driving the current gold - price increase remains unchanged, and the Fed's interest - rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment may be short - term disturbances. Silver shows a similar trend to gold [4] Light Industry - Logs: Last week, the average daily port shipment of logs decreased by 0.12 cubic meters to 6.44 cubic meters, and the national average daily outbound volume was stable above 6 cubic meters. In October, the volume of logs shipped from New Zealand to China increased by 2%, while China's coniferous - log imports decreased by 4.67% month - on - month and 7.14% year - on - year. This week's expected arrival volume increased by 48%. Port inventories increased by 8 cubic meters to 303 cubic meters, with high inventory pressure. Spot prices were stable, but the cost support weakened, and log prices are expected to continue to decline [4][7] - Pulp: The previous trading day's spot prices were stable. The latest outer - market prices of coniferous pulp decreased by 20 dollars to 680 dollars/ton, and those of broad - leaved pulp increased by 20 dollars to 540 dollars/ton. The cost support for pulp prices weakened. The papermaking industry's profit level was low, and paper mills had high inventory pressure and low acceptance of high - priced pulp. Pulp prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [7] - Offset Paper: The previous trading day's spot prices increased slightly in some cases. Supply was stable, and production decreased slightly compared to last week. Publishing tenders were ongoing, but market expectations were cautious. Paper prices were at low profit levels, and the enthusiasm for high - price stockpiling was low. Prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [7] Oils and Fats - Oils: US soybean crushing reached a record high, but the US biodiesel policy is uncertain. In October, Malaysian palm oil production and inventory were higher than expected, and from November 1 - 20, production increased by 3.24% month - on - month. However, floods in Southeast Asia may affect palm - oil harvesting and transportation. Malaysian palm - oil exports from November 1 - 25 decreased by 16.4% - 18.8% month - on - month. In China, a large amount of soybeans are arriving, oil - mill operating rates are high, and oil inventories are rising, while demand is weak. Oil prices are expected to continue to move in a range, and attention should be paid to weather in the Brazilian soybean - producing areas and Malaysian palm - oil production and sales [6] - Meals: US soybean production, exports, and ending stocks have all been adjusted downward, with a structurally tight supply, but the global soybean supply remains relatively loose. The China - US trade agreement may promote US soybean exports to China, but US soybean prices lack export advantages. Brazilian soybean planting progress has improved, and Argentina is experiencing drought. Domestic oil - mill operating rates are high, and soybean - meal supply is abundant. Although demand from the breeding industry supports feed consumption, feed enterprises are cautious in purchasing. Soybean - meal prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to South American soybean weather and China - US trade progress [6] Agricultural Products - Live Pigs: The average trading weight of live pigs varies in different regions, with some areas seeing a decline due to farmers reducing losses or early slaughter, and others seeing an increase due to bullish expectations or passive pressure on inventory. The average settlement price of live pigs by key slaughtering enterprises is 12.34 yuan/kg, down 2.58% from the previous period. Terminal pork demand has recovered, but as the supply of suitable - weight pigs increases, the settlement price may face downward pressure. Slaughtering - enterprise operating rates are slowly rising, and live - pig prices are expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias [8] Soft Commodities - Rubber: In Yunnan, raw - material prices are stable, and factory price increases drive up raw - material prices. In Hainan, continuous rain, typhoons, and temperature drops affect rubber tapping, resulting in lower - than - expected glue production. In Thailand, rain has increased, and raw - material prices have risen, while in Vietnam, raw - material supply has gradually recovered. Total inventory is low. The capacity utilization rates of China's semi - steel and full - steel tire sample enterprises decreased, but as maintenance enterprises resume production, capacity will be gradually released. Automobile production and sales in October increased. Natural - rubber inventory is gradually increasing, and prices are expected to fluctuate widely [10] - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF: PX prices fluctuate due to geopolitical uncertainties and Thanksgiving - holiday - affected trading. PTA's cost side is unstable, and although short - term supply - demand is improving, the industry will weaken seasonally. MEG has long - term inventory - accumulation pressure, and short - term prices will fluctuate. PR and PF lack clear direction, and the market is expected to move sideways [10]