集运日报：悲观情绪略有消化，盘面偏弱震荡，建议观望为主，运价无明波动。-20251128

Report Summary 1. Report Date - The report is a container shipping daily report dated November 28, 2025 [1] 2. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report 3. Core Viewpoints - Pessimistic sentiment has been slightly digested, the market is weakly volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see. The freight rate has no obvious fluctuation. The core issue is the trend of spot freight rates, and the main contract has shown a seasonal rebound. It is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [2][4] 4. Summary of Key Information 4.1 Freight Rate Index - SCFIS: On November 24, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1639.37 points, up 20.7% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1107.85 points, down 10.5% from the previous period [3] - NCFI: On November 21, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 946.44 points, down 5.33% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 951.65 points, down 2.83% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 955.93 points, down 9.17% from the previous period [3] - SCFI: On November 21, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1393.56 points, down 57.82 points from the previous period. The SCFI price for the European route was 1367 USD/TEU, down 3.53% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1645 USD/FEU, down 9.76% from the previous period [3] - CCFI: On November 21, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1122.79 points, up 2.6% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1432.96 points, up 2.1% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 850.96 points, up 0.6% from the previous period [3] 4.2 PMI Data - Eurozone: In October, the preliminary manufacturing PMI was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous 45), the preliminary services PMI was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous 51.4), the preliminary composite PMI was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous 49.6), and the Sentix investor confidence index was expected to be - 8.5 (previous - 9.2) [3] - China: In October, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating overall stable production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises [3] - US: In October, the preliminary S&P Global services PMI was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous 54.2), the preliminary manufacturing PMI was 52.2 (expected 52), and the preliminary composite PMI was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous 53.9) [4] 4.3 Contract Information - On November 27, the main contract 2602 closed at 1387.7, with a decline of 0.69%. The trading volume was 25,000 lots, the open interest was 43,000 lots, a decrease of 1089 lots from the previous day [4] 4.4 Strategies - Short - term strategy: For risk - takers, it is recommended to try a light - position long in the EC2602 contract in the range of 1550 - 1600. If the market plunges, do not add more positions, do not carry losses, and set stop - losses [5] - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily or try with a light position [5] - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, and then judge the subsequent direction after waiting for a pull - back and stabilization [5] 4.5 Contract Adjustments - The daily price limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% - The intraday opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [5] 4.6 Geopolitical News - On November 25, local time, the Egyptian Intelligence Directorate Chief and the Qatari Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister held talks in Cairo on the Gaza cease - fire issue, agreeing to continue cooperation with the US to maintain the Gaza cease - fire and promote the implementation of the second - stage cease - fire agreement - The Maersk CEO said he was encouraged by the Gaza peace process, which helps to establish freedom of navigation in the Mandeb Strait and restore normal trade routes [6]