银河期货甲醇月报-20251128

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December, on the supply side, with the peak - winter coal - using season approaching, coal prices are expected to remain firm. Northwest CTO continues external procurement, methanol auction prices are strong, coal - to - methanol profits will be maintained, and domestic methanol operating rates will reach new highs. In terms of imports, Iranian plants are stable, and the import volume in December is expected to increase to 1.6 million tons, with slow destocking of port inventories. On the demand side, there is no incremental demand in December. New MTO plants are to be put into operation at the end of the year, but limited by compressed profits, some port MTO plants will resume. Traditional demand capacity continues to expand, but there are few bright spots under the mediocre macro - background [4][96]. - High inventory pressure persists, but as Iran starts gas rationing and some plants shut down, methanol is oscillating to build a bottom [5][96]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary - Comprehensive Analysis: In December, the supply is relatively abundant with high domestic operating rates and expected import increase. Demand has no significant growth [4][96]. - Strategy Recommendation: Unilateral trading should focus on oscillating to build a bottom. For arbitrage, long - term attention should be paid to the 5 - 9 positive spread in inter - period arbitrage and the repair opportunity of PP - 3MA in cross - variety arbitrage. The lower limit is 2050 yuan/ton [5][9][96]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - In November 2025, domestic mainstream methanol spot prices declined. Macroeconomic factors such as US economic data, tariff contradictions, and domestic policies affected the market. With the return to fundamentals and high port inventories, methanol futures declined more [10][11]. - On the supply side, domestic coal demand decreased in November, but inland methanol prices were firm. Coal - to - methanol profits shrank slightly but remained high. Domestic supply was loose, especially in the northwest. In the port area, MTO plant operating rates were stable. International plant operating rates were high and stable, and Iranian shipping speed increased in November, with an expected import volume of 1.65 million tons in December [14][19][21]. - The average prices in different regions declined month - on - month. International methanol operating rates were stable in November, with some plant changes. US supply was high, and overall demand was weak, leading to a weak methanol price [23][25][27]. 3.2.2 Supply Analysis - From 2024 to 2027, the new methanol plant commissioning enters a contraction cycle. In 2024, China's methanol capacity increased by about 3% year - on - year, with a total output of 75 million tons. The actual new capacity in 2024 was 3 million tons. In 2025, the capacity is expected to increase by about 3% year - on - year, with a total output of 85 million tons, and the actual new capacity (for sale) is 1.9 million tons [30][38]. - In November 2024, new domestic methanol plant commissioning was limited, with various production processes involved. In December 2025, the new commissioning pressure remains small [33][38]. - In November, coal prices fluctuated slightly, methanol prices declined, and coal - to - methanol profits narrowed but remained high. It is expected to remain high in December [40]. - Coal - to - methanol profits are high, and the operating rates are at a high level. As of the end of November, the overall domestic methanol plant operating load was 76.25%, and the northwest operating load was 85.76%. The coal - single - methanol operating rate was 97.15%. From January to October 2025, domestic methanol production increased significantly [43][47]. - In December, coal prices are expected to be stable and firm. With the return of overhauled plants, the overall operating rate will increase slightly, and enterprise inventories are expected to be stable [49][52]. 3.2.3 December Import Forecast - From January to November 2025, China is expected to import about 12.83 million tons of methanol. As of November, Iranian shipping exceeded 1.16 million tons, and non - Iranian transshipment exceeded 600,000 tons. The import volume in December is expected to exceed 1.6 million tons [56][58]. - In 2024, international new capacity slowed down, with new projects mainly in the US and Malaysia. In 2025, international new capacity is still large, especially in Iran, where 4.95 million tons of new capacity are planned [62][64]. - Currently, some Iranian plants are shut down, and the daily output has decreased. The import volume in December is expected to be 1.6 million tons. High - level imports and stable MTO demand lead to continuous inventory accumulation at ports. As of the end of November, the total port inventory was 1.47 million tons [67][69][72]. 3.2.4 Limited Demand Increment in December and Little Macro - level Change - The macro - economic recovery is slow. In November, trade and geopolitical conflicts affected the domestic macro - environment, and the Fed's interest - rate cut timing is worthy of attention. In October, China's economic output remained stable, but the manufacturing PMI declined [76][77]. - In November, there was no new MTO plant commissioning. In the second half of 2025, 1.45 million tons of new MTO plants are expected to be commissioned, but some are postponed. Some MTO plants face elimination pressure due to profit and industrial - structure issues [83][87]. - In December, traditional downstream demand is unlikely to increase. The fundamentals of traditional downstream sectors are differentiated, with formaldehyde, MTBE, and DMF having stable increments, and acetic acid, BDO, and DMC having more new increments. Some industries' operating rates are affected by weak demand [93]. 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - Comprehensive Analysis: Similar to the preface, in December, supply is abundant, and demand has no significant growth [96]. - Strategy Recommendation: Unilateral trading should focus on oscillating to build a bottom. For arbitrage, long - term attention should be paid to the 5 - 9 positive spread in inter - period arbitrage and the repair opportunity of PP - 3MA in cross - variety arbitrage. The lower limit is 2050 yuan/ton [96].