工业硅12月报-20251128

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December, the demand for industrial silicon is expected to weaken slightly compared to November, while the supply may decrease to around 390,000 tons. The market is in a tight balance with no obvious cost - side drivers. The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of (8,500, 9,500). If there is a reduction in industrial silicon production in the Northwest due to environmental protection, the futures price may break through the upper limit of the oscillation range [4][5][44]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Preface - The report is the Industrial Silicon December Report 2025, with the view of range - bound fluctuations and attention to environmental protection in the Northwest [3]. 2. Fundamental Situation 2.1 Market Review - In November, the industrial silicon futures showed a narrow - range oscillation. The supply and demand were both weak, and the spot price generally showed an upward trend. In mid - November, affected by the silicone meeting, speculative funds entered the market, the intraday futures price rose by more than 5%, and Xinjiang silicon plants carried out large - scale hedging, resulting in a slight reduction in factory inventories [9]. 2.2 Demand: Weaker in December - DMC: Since 2022, the new energy vehicle and photovoltaic industries have supported the consumption of silicone materials. In 2025, the demand for silicone from the photovoltaic industry declined. After the new silicone monomer capacity was put into production in the second half of 2024, the industry became over - supplied. In November, silicone enterprises reached a consensus to cut production under certain conditions. Currently, the price increase is successful, and the December DMC operating rate is expected to be flat compared to November [16][17]. - Polysilicon: As of the end of November, some polysilicon enterprises had production adjustments. In December, the polysilicon operating rate will change little, and the monthly output is expected to be 112,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons compared to November [19][20]. - Aluminum alloy and exports: Since September, the demand for aluminum alloy has increased. In December, the demand may weaken marginally, and the operating rate may decline slightly. In October, the export volume of industrial silicon decreased. The export volume in December is expected to be between that of September and October [22]. 2.3 Supply: Decrease in December - In November, the national industrial silicon production was 412,500 tons, a decrease of 48,200 tons compared to October. In December, due to the increase in electricity prices in Yunnan and Sichuan, the number of operating furnaces may decrease by more than 20, and the production may decrease to around 390,000 tons. In the Northwest, the operating rate will change little without environmental protection pressure [25][27]. 2.4 Cost and Inventory - In November, the cost of industrial silicon in the Northwest increased slightly, and in December, the cost in the Southwest may increase by more than 600 yuan/ton. The current explicit inventory of industrial silicon is 960,000 tons. The inventory structure makes it easy for the futures and spot prices to rise in a positive cycle when there is bullish news, while a negative cycle requires a significant increase in factory inventories [32]. 3. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - Supply - demand outlook: In December, the demand for industrial silicon will weaken slightly, and the production may decrease to around 390,000 tons [44]. - Trading logic: The market is in a tight balance, with no obvious cost - side drivers. The price is expected to oscillate within the range of (8,500, 9,500), and may break through the upper limit if there is a production cut in the Northwest due to environmental protection [5][44]. - Strategies: - Single - side: Range operation, with the price reference of (8,500, 9,500) [6][44]. - Arbitrage: Long Si2601 and short Si2602 [6][44]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options on dips [6][44].