花生12月报-20251128

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - In November 2025, peanut imports remained low, prices in Northeast and Henan rose slightly, and the price difference between general peanuts and oil - grade peanuts widened. The downstream demand was still weak, but the profit of peanut oil mills continued to increase. Affected by the warehouse - receipt game, the 01 peanut contract on the futures market rebounded significantly [3]. - In December, peanuts will be listed successively. Farmers in the Northeast are still reluctant to sell, so the price will remain strong. The supply of oil - grade peanuts is sufficient, and oil mills will continue to lower the purchase price. The price difference between oil - grade and general peanuts will remain large. The 01 peanut contract has limited upside space above 8,200 yuan/ton [4]. - The new - season peanut production is higher than last year, with lower planting costs. The supply of oil - grade peanuts is abundant, and the profit of oil mills is at a new high this year. It is expected that oil mills will increase their purchases in December, and the price of oil - grade peanuts will fluctuate at the bottom [51]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 International Peanut Situation and Market Review - Global peanut production is increasing, but peanut imports have decreased significantly. In 2025, the global peanut production is expected to be 51.78 million tons according to FAS data, and 51.74 million tons according to the latest USDA data. China's production is about 19 million tons, India's is 7.35 million tons, etc. In 2024, the global peanut crushing volume was 19.28 million tons, accounting for 37.6%, and the import volume was 4.26 million tons, accounting for 9.4%. Due to lower - than - expected imports from Sudan and Senegal, the import volume is much lower than last year [7]. 3.2 Domestic Peanut Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Price Increase in Henan and Northeast Peanuts - Due to the strong reluctance of traders and farmers in the Northeast to sell, the spot price of Northeast peanuts has risen, driving up the price in Henan. In December, a large number of peanuts will be listed, but due to the low current price and the low purchase price of oil mills, the downward space for peanut prices is limited [14]. 3.2.2 Significantly Reduced Imported Peanuts Year - on - Year, with Relatively High Imported Peanut Prices - From January to October 2025, the cumulative import of peanut kernels was 198,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 69%. The cumulative export of peanut kernels was 129,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19%. The cumulative import of peanut oil from January to October 2025 was 334,000 tons, 53% higher than last year. It is expected that the peanut import volume in December will still be low, and the peanut oil import in November will remain stable [22]. 3.2.3 Good Profits of Peanut Oil Mills, but Low Peanut Inventory in Mills - As of November 21, the operating rate of peanut oil mills was 16.61%, and the peanut inventory was 54,000 tons, higher than the previous month but lower than the same period last year. As of November 28, the pressing profit of peanut oil mills was 376 yuan/ton. In December, the supply of oil - grade peanuts will be sufficient, the price will remain low, the operating rate of oil mills will increase, and the peanut inventory will also increase [31]. - In November, the price of peanut oil was relatively weak, and the inventory continued to rise. The price of peanut meal remained stable. It is expected that the peanut oil inventory will continue to rise in December, and the price will remain stable, while the peanut meal price will also be relatively stable [37]. 3.2.4 Decreased New - Season Peanut Planting Costs, Higher Production than Last Year - In 2025, the peanut planting area increased year - on - year. Although there was a partial reduction in production in Henan and other places, the national peanut production was slightly higher than last year. The planting cost excluding land rent was generally between 600 - 800 yuan/ton, and the seed cost decreased slightly. The price difference between oil - grade and general peanuts widened [48]. 3.3 Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - Market Outlook: In December, a large number of peanuts will be listed, and oil mills will increase their purchases. The price of oil - grade peanuts will fluctuate at the bottom, and the price difference between oil - grade and general peanuts will remain high. The 01 peanut contract has limited upside space above 8,200 yuan/ton, and it is expected to fluctuate between 7,700 - 8,200 yuan/ton, while the 05 peanut contract is expected to fluctuate between 7,800 - 8,200 yuan/ton [51]. - Trading Strategies - Single - side: Short the 01 and 03 peanut contracts on rallies [6][53]. - Arbitrage: Try a reverse spread on the 1 - 5 peanut contracts with a light position [6][53]. - Options: Sell the pk603 - C - 8300 option when the peanut futures price rallies [6][53].