Dongguan Securities·2025-11-28 08:14Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating an expectation that the industry index will outperform the market index by more than 10% over the next six months [2][47]. Core Viewpoints - The white liquor sector is bottoming out, with a focus on structural opportunities. The report anticipates continued pressure on sales in the white liquor market through Q4 of this year and Q1 of next year, with a potential recovery in Q2 of next year due to a low base effect. The report suggests monitoring high-end liquor brands like Kweichow Moutai and other regional brands for investment opportunities [2][44]. - The report highlights a mixed performance across various segments within the food and beverage industry, with certain sectors like snacks and soft drinks showing potential growth driven by key products and channel contributions [2][44]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The SW food and beverage industry index decreased by 2.97% from November 14 to November 27, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by approximately 1.00 percentage points [9][11]. - Most sub-sectors underperformed the CSI 300 index during the same period, with the dairy sector showing the smallest decline of 0.11% [11][12]. - Approximately 6% of stocks in the industry recorded positive returns, with notable gainers including Hai Xin Food (+11.34%) and Nan Qiao Food (+7.86%) [13][14]. - The industry valuation is currently below the five-year average, with a PE ratio of approximately 21.3 times, compared to the historical average of 32 times [15]. 2. Key Industry Data Tracking 2.1 White Liquor Sector - The report notes a decline in the prices of premium liquor brands, with the price of Feitian Moutai at 1590 RMB per bottle, down 50 RMB from the previous period [17]. 2.2 Seasoning Sector - Prices for soybean meal increased, while white sugar and glass prices decreased. The price of white sugar fell to 5470 RMB per ton, a decrease of 290 RMB [22]. 2.3 Beer Sector - The average price of barley decreased to 2195 RMB per ton, while the price of aluminum ingots increased slightly [27]. 2.4 Dairy Sector - The average price of fresh milk remained stable at 3.03 RMB per kilogram [34]. 2.5 Meat Products Sector - The average wholesale price of pork decreased to 18.07 RMB per kilogram, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 22.88% [36]. 3. Industry News - The report mentions a 4.1% year-on-year growth in retail sales of tobacco and alcohol for October 2025, indicating a positive trend in consumer spending [39]. - The report also highlights a 16.1% increase in beer exports for the first ten months of 2025, suggesting a growing international demand [40]. 4. Company Announcements - Yili Group announced a shareholder return plan for 2025-2027, committing to a cash dividend of no less than 75% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [43]. 5. Weekly Industry Perspective - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring economic recovery and distributor confidence in the white liquor sector, while also suggesting investment in high-quality brands and sectors benefiting from policy support [44][45].