“猪油”共振的可能性推演：2026年CPI和PPI展望

Group 1: Pork Price Outlook - Pork prices are expected to improve quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2026, with a significant year-on-year increase anticipated in Q3 2026[1] - As of the end of Q3 2025, the breeding sow inventory stands at 40.35 million, with a target of reducing to 39 million, indicating a necessary monthly reduction of 280,000 sows[1] - The year-on-year decline in breeding sow inventory is projected to reach -1.62%, -2.50%, and -3.20% for October, November, and December 2025 respectively[1] Group 2: Oil Price Outlook - OPEC+ has a total remaining production capacity of 3.4 million barrels per day, with Saudi Arabia holding 2.13 million barrels per day, indicating limited short-term production increase capabilities[2] - The WTI oil price is expected to stabilize around $65 per barrel, with geopolitical risks potentially pushing this higher[2] - U.S. shale oil production is anticipated to face reduction pressures, with capital expenditures and rig counts declining, leading to a production bottleneck by the end of 2025[2] Group 3: CPI and PPI Projections - Under neutral conditions, CPI is projected to be around 0.5% for 2026, with pork prices averaging 19, 20, 21, and 22 CNY/kg across the quarters[3] - In a positive scenario, CPI could rise to approximately 0.7% due to stronger domestic demand and consumption policies[4] - PPI is expected to turn positive around Q3 2026, with a year-on-year growth rate of about 0.2% in Q3 and maintaining around 0.5% in Q4[4]