地产行业月报：政策预期有所升温，持续看好优质企业-20251128

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Real Estate Stronger than the Market (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the sales decline in October and November is expanding due to the high base from the previous year, with a need for macro policies to stabilize residents' income expectations and enhance purchasing power. The report emphasizes the importance of improving residents' willingness and ability to buy homes to stabilize the housing market [2][3] - The report suggests that the key to the housing market's stabilization lies in the improvement of residents' purchasing power and willingness to buy homes, which will ultimately lead to an improvement in supply-demand dynamics [2] - The report highlights the necessity of reducing mortgage rates through measures such as interest rate cuts or government subsidies to enhance the attractiveness of home purchases [2] Summary by Sections Policy - The report discusses the promotion of high-quality development in real estate, emphasizing the "Good House" initiative during the 14th Five-Year Plan, which aims to improve housing standards, design, materials, construction, and maintenance [3][4][5] Financing - The report notes a year-on-year decrease in long-term loans to residents, with a significant drop in new long-term loans in October 2025, amounting to a reduction of 700 billion yuan, which is 1.8 trillion yuan less than the previous year [10][11] Real Estate Market - The report states that the average daily transaction volume of new homes in 50 key cities fell by 31.4% year-on-year in October and by 46.3% in November, while the second-hand housing market also saw significant declines [19][25] - The report indicates that the average land supply in 100 cities was 1.3 million square meters in October, a decrease of 17.2% month-on-month, while the average transaction area increased by 3.4% [26] Real Estate Companies - The report highlights that the sales amount of the top 100 real estate companies fell by 40.6% year-on-year in October, with a cumulative decline of 16.7% for the first ten months of 2025 [34][38] - The report mentions that the average land acquisition ratio for the top 50 real estate companies increased, indicating a rise in land acquisition activity despite the overall sales decline [38] Market Performance - The report notes that the real estate sector underperformed the broader market, with a decline of 2.37% in October, while the current price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) for the real estate sector is 62.32, significantly higher than the 13.92 for the broader market [42]