需求表现一般，蛋价稳重有落

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side of eggs is still under pressure and is not expected to improve significantly in the short term. The demand side will enter the peak season in December, and egg prices may rebound seasonally, but the rebound amplitude will be limited due to supply - side disturbances. The January futures contract is expected to be range - bound with a slightly upward trend, while the February and March contracts can be considered for short - selling at high prices [5][32] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. First Part: Preface Summary 1.1 Market Review - In November, the spot price of eggs fluctuated weakly. The average price in the main production areas was around 2.7 - 2.8 yuan/jin, and in the main sales areas, it was around 2.9 - 3.09 yuan/jin. The January egg futures contract also showed a weak and fluctuating trend. The laying hens in the supply side were still at a high level but had eased compared to before. November was the off - season for egg consumption, so the overall egg price performance was average [4] 1.2 Market Outlook - The supply side is still under pressure and is not expected to improve significantly in the short term. In December, the demand for eggs will enter the peak season. Affected by seasonality, egg prices may rebound, but the rebound amplitude will be limited due to supply - side disturbances. The January futures contract has the expectation of Spring Festival stocking, but it has already given a certain premium, so it is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger. The February contract can be considered for short - selling at high prices [5] 1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: The January contract will be range - bound, and the February contract can be considered for short - selling at high prices. Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see. Options: It is recommended to wait and see [6] 2. Second Part: Fundamental Situation 2.1 Market Review - In November, the spot price of eggs fluctuated. The average price in the main production areas was around 2.8 - 2.9 yuan/jin, and in the main sales areas, it was around 3 - 3.2 yuan/jin. The January egg futures contract fluctuated within a range. The demand in November was average, and the spot price changed little. On the one hand, the demand was less than in previous years; on the other hand, the current laying hen inventory was still at a high level, and the market was worried about future egg prices, so the futures price fluctuated weakly [10] 2.2 Fundamental Situation - Supply Side: In October, the national laying hen inventory was 1.359 billion, a decrease of 0.01 billion from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 5.5%, lower than expected. Without considering delayed culling and concentrated culling, the estimated laying hen inventories from November 2025 to February 2026 are 1.359 billion, 1.355 billion, 1.346 billion, and 1.333 billion respectively. In November, the proportion of large - sized eggs was 39.33% (a low level in the same period over the years), medium - sized eggs was 44.29% (a medium level in the same period over the years), and small - sized eggs was 15.95% (a medium - high level in the same period over the years). The egg - laying rate in November was about 91.94%, remaining stable and is expected to maintain the current level as the weather gets colder. In October, the monthly output of laying hen chicks from sample enterprises was 39.2 million, with little change month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 13%. The current weekly market price of laying hen chicks in the Chinese market is 2.73 yuan/feather, the same as last month. Recently, due to the weak egg price and average peak - season demand, the breeding profit was in the red, and the market's enthusiasm for culling increased. From November 21st, the weekly culling volume of laying hens in the main production areas was 20.21 million, a 3.8% increase from the previous week. The average culling age of culled hens was 492 days, one day less than the previous week [11][13] - Demand Side: The demand in November was average, and the seasonal peak season was less prosperous than in previous years. Although the recent demand has recovered, it is still at a medium - low level in the same period over the years. As of the week of November 21st, the egg sales volume in the national representative sales areas was 7472 tons, a 1.2% increase from the previous week. From January to October 2025, the total retail sales of social consumer goods were 44121.69 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.3%. In October, the absolute value of catering revenue was 51.99 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.8% [20] - Inventory: As of the week of November 21st, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.1 days, an increase of 0.09 days from the previous week. The average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.2 days, an increase of 0.15 days from the previous week [20] - Cost and Breeding Profit: The current feed cost has changed little and is expected to remain at the current level in the short term. In November, the corn price was 2309 yuan/ton, and the soybean meal price dropped to 3076 yuan/ton. The current comprehensive feed cost is about 2539 yuan/ton, corresponding to a feed cost of about 2.79 yuan/jin for one jin of eggs. As of November 21st, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was - 0.26 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.11 yuan/jin from the previous week. On November 14th, the expected profit of laying hen breeding was - 7.19 yuan/feather, a decrease of 1.01 yuan/jin from the previous week [22] - Substitutes: The vegetable price index continued to rise. On November 24th, the total vegetable price index in Shouguang was 126.65. The vegetable price has risen significantly recently but is at a relatively medium level in the same period over the years. The pork price fluctuated this month with little overall change. As of November 24th, the average national wholesale price of pork was about 15.04 yuan/kg. The low vegetable price has a weak substitution demand for eggs, and the current low - level fluctuating pork price has a relatively limited substitution demand for eggs [27] 3. Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - The supply side is still under pressure and is not expected to improve significantly in the short term. The demand side will enter the peak season in December, and egg prices may rebound seasonally, but the rebound amplitude will be limited due to supply - side disturbances. The January futures contract is expected to strengthen, but since it has already given a certain premium, it is expected to fluctuate within a range. The February and March contracts are post - Spring Festival contracts. If the supply side pressure does not improve significantly and the demand is average, short - selling at high prices can be considered [32]