东北三省化债进度观察与区域发展转型探索：“东北化债成效凸显，城投转型道阻且长”

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since 2023, the implementation of the "Comprehensive Debt Resolution Plan" has achieved phased results. In December 2024, Document No. 99 provided a clear path for key provinces to exit. Driven by continuous debt resolution policies, Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Liaoning have achieved certain results in debt resolution, with reduced implicit debt ratios and effectively relieved regional debt pressure. The three northeastern provinces are close to meeting the criteria for exiting the list of key provinces and are expected to be the first to exit in the future [2][5][71]. - Although the asset structures of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Changchun, Harbin, Shenyang, and Dalian show varying degrees of transformation, with a continuous decline in the proportion of urban investment income, their profits still mainly come from government subsidies, and their self - hematopoietic ability has not been fundamentally improved. The actual transformation path is long and arduous, and it is necessary to thoroughly implement the strategic deployment for the comprehensive revitalization of Northeast China in the new era [3][73][74]. - Urban investment enterprises can rely on regional resource endowments and strategic positions to cultivate industrial clusters with regional characteristics, achieve maximum industrial value - added through regional collaboration and differential development, eliminate inefficient and ineffective investments, and enhance their profitability and self - hematopoietic ability, thereby improving the fiscal health of local governments and providing strong support for regional high - quality development [3][74]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Introduction - Since 2023, the "Comprehensive Debt Resolution Plan" has achieved phased results. In early 2024, the State Council required key provinces to strengthen the management of government investment projects to prevent and resolve local debt risks. Northeast China, as an important old industrial base, has heavy regional debt pressure and is included in the 12 key debt - resolution provinces [5]. - Document No. 99 proposed exit criteria for key provinces, including two quantitative indicators (implicit debt ratio and local financial debt/GDP) and one qualitative indicator (ability to prevent and resolve local debt risks without policy support), and put forward clear requirements for the exit progress of financing platforms [6][7]. 3.2 Analysis of Debt Resolution Progress and Achievements in the Three Northeastern Provinces 3.2.1 Economic, Fiscal, and Debt Resolution Situations in the Three Northeastern Provinces - Regional Development and Economic - Fiscal Conditions: The three northeastern provinces are important gateways for opening up to Northeast Asia, with advantages in agriculture, industry, and characteristic industries. However, in 2024, the population decreased by over 800,000, mainly due to low birth rates, deep - seated aging, and labor outflow. In terms of economy and finance, Liaoning ranks high among key provinces, while Heilongjiang and Jilin are in the middle - lower reaches. In terms of debt, Yunnan and Guizhou have heavy debt burdens, Liaoning ranks in the middle, Heilongjiang has relatively low debt, and Jilin has a relatively high debt ratio [9][10]. - Debt Resolution Progress: As of the end of 2024, the implicit debt ratios of the three northeastern provinces are lower than the average of the eight non - key provinces with relatively high implicit debt ratios, meeting the quantitative requirements. Heilongjiang and Liaoning have basically met the two quantitative indicators. The three northeastern provinces have made significant progress in debt resolution through various measures. For example, some areas in Heilongjiang have reduced debt risk levels, Jilin has significantly reduced implicit debt, and the number of financing platforms in Jilin and Liaoning has decreased by over 50% [14][17][21]. 3.2.2 Economic, Fiscal, and Debt Resolution Situations in Key Cities of the Three Northeastern Provinces - Economic, Fiscal, and Debt Conditions: Among the 11 key cities selected, Dalian, Shenyang, Changchun, and Harbin have relatively large GDP and general public budget revenues. In 2024, the government debt balances and debt ratios of key cities increased compared with the end of 2023 [28][30][31]. - Debt Scale and Repayment Pressure of Bond - Issuing Urban Investment Enterprises: As of the end of 2024, there are 25 bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in the three northeastern provinces. Changchun's bond - issuing urban investment enterprises have a significantly higher interest - bearing debt scale. Most cities' bond - issuing urban investment enterprises' interest - bearing debt scales decreased in 2024 compared with the end of 2023, but the debt pressure of Changchun, Harbin, and Shenyang increased, while that of Dalian decreased [35][36]. - Analysis of Debt Resolution Progress and Achievements in Key Cities: In 2024, the implicit debt scales and implicit debt ratios of key cities in the Northeast decreased. Most key cities' bond - issuing urban investment enterprises' financing costs decreased or remained the same compared with the previous year. The spreads of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in key cities generally decreased [40][46][48]. 3.3 Exploration and Analysis of Development Transformation in Key Cities of the Three Northeastern Provinces 3.3.1 Financial Performance of Urban Investment Enterprises' Transformation - Investment - related Assets: From 2022 - 2024, the investment - related assets of Changchun and Shenyang's bond - issuing urban investment enterprises increased, Harbin's remained stable, and Dalian's decreased. The proportion of investment - related assets in Changchun, Shenyang, and Dalian increased [54]. - Urban Investment - related Assets: Shenyang and Harbin's bond - issuing urban investment enterprises reduced urban investment - related assets, while Changchun's increased, and Dalian's showed a relative expansion [55]. - Operation - related Assets: Changchun's bond - issuing urban investment enterprises' operation - related assets showed a relative contraction, Harbin and Dalian's contracted, and Shenyang's expanded [59]. - Urban Investment Business Income: The proportion of urban investment business income of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Changchun, Harbin, Shenyang, and Dalian decreased [60]. - Profitability and Profit Structure: From 2022 - 2024, Changchun's bond - issuing urban investment enterprises' profitability declined, while Harbin, Shenyang, and Dalian's increased. However, the profits of these enterprises still mainly come from government subsidies [62]. 3.3.2 Industrial Upgrading Directions in Key Cities and Market - oriented Participation of Urban Investment Enterprises - Industrial Upgrading Directions: Changchun focuses on the automobile industry and new clusters, Harbin builds a modern industrial system through innovation, Shenyang upgrades its industries in a high - end, intelligent, and green manner, and Dalian develops marine - related industries [66]. - Market - oriented Participation of Urban Investment Enterprises: Urban investment enterprises in Changchun, Harbin, Shenyang, and Dalian participate in industrial transformation through infrastructure investment, industrial fund operation, and equity investment [67]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook - The three northeastern provinces have achieved certain results in debt resolution and are close to meeting the criteria for exiting the list of key provinces. Key cities show different debt situations. Although the asset structures of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in some key cities show transformation, their self - hematopoietic ability has not been fundamentally improved [71][72][73]. - Urban investment enterprises in the three northeastern provinces need to carry out industrial investment around regional industrial upgrading directions, enhance their self - hematopoietic ability, and promote regional high - quality development [74].