沪镍不锈钢市场周报：宏观改善供应压制，镍不锈钢震荡调整-20251128

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - It is expected that Shanghai nickel will rebound and adjust in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the resistance at 119,000 yuan. The stainless - steel futures price is expected to fluctuate and adjust, facing the pressure of MA20 [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary 3.1.1. Shanghai Nickel - Weekly Review: This week, the main contract of Shanghai nickel rebounded from a low level, with a weekly increase of +2.66% and an amplitude of 3.21%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 117,080 yuan/ton [7]. - Market Outlook: Macroeconomically, the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission organized a symposium on the cost determination of disorderly price competition. In October, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China decreased by 5.5% year - on - year, while the manufacturing and power sectors had relatively rapid growth in the first 10 months. Fundamentally, the rainy season in the Philippines has led to a downward trend in nickel ore imports. The RKAB approval in Indonesia and possible changes in export policies are potential variables, but they have limited impact on supply recently. On the smelting side, the production of nickel iron in Indonesia remains at a high level, and the quantity flowing back to China is expected to increase. Multiple new refined nickel projects in China and Indonesia have been put into operation one after another. Although the shortage of intermediate raw materials and profit losses have led to partial production cuts, the production is still at a high level, and the supply pressure in the pure nickel market is relatively large. On the demand side, the price of nickel iron, the raw material for stainless steel, has decreased, the profits of steel mills have improved, and the production volume is expected to be at a high level. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to rise, and ternary batteries contribute a small incremental demand. The domestic nickel inventory continues to increase, the market mainly purchases on demand, and the spot premium has increased. The LME inventory overseas also shows an increasing trend. Technically, the position is stable while the price is adjusting, and the divergence between long and short positions has increased [7]. 3.1.2. Stainless Steel - Weekly Review: This week, stainless steel rebounded from a low level, with a weekly increase of +0.61% and an amplitude of 1.71%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 12,365 yuan/ton [7]. - Market Outlook: On the raw material side, the Philippines is gradually entering the rainy season, and the grade of nickel ore is decreasing. The raw material inventory of domestic nickel - iron plants is tightening. However, the production of nickel iron in Indonesia remains at a high level, and the quantity flowing back to China is expected to increase. Recently, the price of nickel iron has decreased significantly, and the raw material cost has decreased. On the supply side, the production profits of stainless - steel plants have improved. Although the traditional peak demand season has passed, the actual decline in production is expected to be limited, and the supply pressure has increased. On the demand side, downstream demand is gradually entering the off - season, and the export volume of stainless steel is showing a downward trend. The impact of the previous export squeeze is beginning to appear. The market's purchasing willingness is not high, and the overall inquiry and trading performance are average. Therefore, the social inventory of stainless steel across the country shows a narrow increase. Technically, the position has decreased, the price is under pressure, and the short - selling atmosphere has weakened [7]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1. Price Trends - As of November 28, the average price of nickel pig iron (1.5 - 1.7%) was 3,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the average price of nickel iron (7 - 10%) nationwide was 885 yuan/nickel, unchanged from last week. The closing price of Shanghai nickel was 117,080 yuan/ton, an increase of 3,030 yuan/ton from last week; the closing price of stainless steel was 12,365 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan/ton from last week [13]. 3.2.2. Basis Trends - As of November 28, the spot price of electrolytic nickel was 119,500 yuan/ton, with a basis of 2,420 yuan/ton; the closing price of stainless steel was 13,200 yuan/ton, with a basis of 835 yuan/ton [18]. 3.2.3. Price Ratio Trends - As of November 28, the price ratio of Shanghai nickel to stainless steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 9.47, an increase of 0.19 from last week; the price ratio of Shanghai tin to Shanghai nickel was 2.61 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.06 from last week [25]. 3.2.4. Net Position Trends - As of November 28, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai nickel was - 25,372 lots, a decrease of 1,681 lots from November 24, 2025. The net position of the top 20 in stainless steel was - 11,728 lots, a decrease of 2,567 lots from November 24, 2025 [31]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation 3.3.1. Supply Side - Nickel Ore and Production Profit: As of November 21, the nickel ore inventory in major domestic ports was 14.9976 million tons, a decrease of 97,300 tons from last week. As of November 28, the production profit of electrowinning nickel was 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,550 yuan/ton from last week [37][38]. - Domestic Production and Import: In September 2025, the production of electrolytic nickel was 36,795 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.25%. In October 2025, the import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 9,939.649 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 65.21%. From January to October, the cumulative import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 197,125.63 tons, a year - on - year increase of 173.13% [43]. - Inventory: As of November 28, the inventory of Shanghai nickel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 40,782 tons, an increase of 4,031 tons from last week. The LME nickel inventory was 255,450 tons, an increase of 4,014 tons from last week [49][50]. 3.3.2. Demand Side - Stainless Steel Production and Export: In October 2025, the total production of stainless crude steel was 3.5138 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.54%. Among them, the production of 400 - series stainless steel was 659,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.57%; the production of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.8 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.12%; the production of 200 - series stainless steel was 1.054 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.44%. The import volume of stainless steel was 121,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,000 tons; the export volume was 300,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 48,200 tons. From January to October, the cumulative net import volume was - 2.2457 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 178,700 tons [54]. - Regional Inventory: As of November 28, the stainless - steel inventory in Foshan was 334,940 tons, an increase of 2,477 tons from last week; the inventory in Wuxi was 553,664 tons, an increase of 7,131 tons from last week [59]. - Production Profit: As of November 28, the production profit of stainless steel was - 1 yuan/ton, an increase of 11 yuan/ton from last week [64]. - Related Industries: From January to October 2025, the newly started area of housing was 490.6139 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.8%; the completed area of housing was 348.61 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.9%; real estate development investment was 735.627 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7%. In October 2025, the production of air conditioners was 14.204 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 12.33%; the production of household refrigerators was 8.788 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 2.04%; the production of household washing machines was 11.035 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.07%; the production of freezers was 2.153 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 0.91%. In October 2025, the production of new energy vehicles in China was 3.359 million units, a year - on - year increase of 36.3%; the sales volume was 3.322 million units, a year - on - year increase of 26.9%. The production of excavators was 30,880 units, a year - on - year increase of 13%; the production of large and medium - sized tractors was 21,903 units, a year - on - year increase of 5.47%; the production of small tractors was 9,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 25% [68][73].