瑞达期货天然橡胶市场周报-20251128

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the natural rubber market had significant long - short divergence, and rubber prices fluctuated. The import rubber market was mainly for traders to roll and exchange positions. The far - month Thai mixed rubber weakened again after the buying volume decreased due to the positive spread arbitrage. The futures market continued to fluctuate, and the spot quotes of domestic natural rubber adjusted slightly within the range following the market. The willingness of holders to quote was average, and the terminal buyers restocked in moderation at low prices, with light actual transactions [8]. - In the near future, raw materials in Yunnan's production areas were mostly stable with relatively sufficient supplies. In Hainan's production areas, the weather was okay, but yellowing and leaf - falling phenomena appeared in the central and eastern regions, which restricted the overall raw material output. Local processing plants faced high production costs and mainly purchased raw materials as needed. Recently, the cumulative inventory increase at Qingdao Port has expanded month - on - month, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory accumulation. Overseas shipments arriving at the port and entering the warehouse remained at a high level, but downstream enterprises were mainly in a wait - and - see mood and had low inventory - building willingness, which led to a large increase in the total inventory at Qingdao Port [8]. - In terms of demand, some semi - steel tire enterprises carried out maintenance this week, dragging down the capacity utilization rate. The full - steel tire enterprises that had been under maintenance resumed work, and the capacity utilization rate recovered. Next week, as the start - up of maintenance enterprises gradually returns to the normal level, it will drive the overall capacity utilization rate to recover, but some enterprises have maintenance arrangements at the end of this month and the beginning of next month, which will limit the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate [8]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15000 - 15700 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12200 - 12700 in the short term [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Market Review: The natural rubber market had long - short divergence this week, with rubber prices fluctuating. The import rubber market focused on position rolling and exchanging. The far - month Thai mixed rubber weakened. The futures market was volatile, and the spot quotes of domestic natural rubber adjusted slightly. The trading volume was light [8]. - Market Outlook: Yunnan's raw materials were stable, while Hainan's output was restricted. Qingdao Port's inventory increased significantly. Some semi - steel tire enterprises had maintenance this week, and full - steel tire enterprises resumed work. Next week, the capacity utilization rate will recover but be limited by future maintenance plans [8]. - Strategy Suggestion: The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15000 - 15700, and the nr2601 contract between 12200 - 12700 in the short term [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - Price Movement: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures fluctuated and closed up, with a weekly increase of 1.12%. The main contract price of 20 - rubber fluctuated and closed down, with a weekly decrease of 0.08% [11]. - Spread: As of November 28th, the spread between Shanghai rubber 1 - 5 was - 35, and the spread between 20 - rubber 1 - 2 was - 15 [23]. - Warehouse Receipts: As of November 28th, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 41400 tons, an increase of 1800 tons from last week; 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 51307 tons, an increase of 1108 tons from last week [29]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price: As of November 27th, the state - owned whole latex was reported at 14850 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [33]. - 20 - Rubber Basis and Non - Standard Basis: As of November 27th, the 20 - rubber basis was 789 yuan/ton, an increase of 16 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 680 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from last week [41] 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Upstream - Thailand's Raw Material Price and Processing Profit: As of November 27th, the field latex in Thailand's natural rubber raw material market was 57 (+0) Thai baht/kg; the cup lump was 52.95 (+0) Thai baht/kg. As of November 28th, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was - 27 US dollars/ton, compared with 4.5 US dollars/ton last week [44]. - Domestic Production Area Raw Material Price: As of November 27th, the latex price in Yunnan was 14100 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the fresh latex price in Hainan was 14300 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [47]. 3.3.2 Import - In October 2025, China's natural rubber (including technical classification, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) imports were 51.08 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 522.81 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 17.27% [51]. 3.3.3 Inventory - As of November 23rd, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 46.89 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.63 tons, or 3.60%. The bonded area inventory was 7.19 tons, an increase of 7.97%; the general trade inventory was 39.7 tons, an increase of 2.84%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse increased by 8.20 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.20 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse increased by 1.03 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.63 percentage points [54]. 3.3.4 Downstream - Tire Production Capacity Utilization Rate: As of November 27th, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.36 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.64 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.75%, a month - on - month increase of 0.71 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.68 percentage points [57]. - Tire Exports: In October 2025, China's tire exports were 65.31 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.05 and a year - on - year decrease of 6.79%. From January to October, China's cumulative tire exports were 704.38 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.68%. Among them, the exports of passenger car tires were 22.59 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.23% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.82%; from January to October, the cumulative exports of passenger car tires were 272.66 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.08%. The exports of truck and bus tires were 39.85 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.35% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.85%; from January to October, the cumulative exports of truck and bus tires were 402.65 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.53% [60]. - Domestic Demand: In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 12% compared with September and a year - on - year increase of about 40%. From January to October this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 900,000 vehicles, reaching 916,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 22% [63]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis There is no information about option market analysis in the provided content.