我国房地产市场未来需求展望

Demand Outlook - The short-term outlook for China's real estate market indicates continued decline, but the downside potential is limited[2] - Long-term demand for housing is expected to decrease significantly due to factors such as declining marriage and birth rates, urbanization, and the growth of affordable housing and rental markets[2] Population and Housing Demand - China's total population peaked at 1.412 billion in 2022 and is projected to decline to approximately 1.26 billion by 2050, with an aging population exceeding 27%[6] - The primary home-buying demographic (ages 26-35) is expected to shrink from 216 million in 2020 to 167 million by 2025, and further to 126 million by 2050[7] Urbanization and Housing Supply - Urbanization rate increased from 55.5% in 2015 to 67% in 2024, but growth is expected to slow as it approaches 75%[10] - The annual increase in urban population has decreased to 5-8 million, indicating a potential reduction in housing demand[10] Marriage and Birth Rates - The crude marriage rate has dropped from 9.92‰ in 2013 to 4.30‰ in 2024, while the total fertility rate has fallen from 1.54 in 2015 to approximately 1.00 in 2024, significantly below the replacement level of 2.10[13][14] Economic Factors - The average disposable income for urban residents in 2024 is projected at 54,200 yuan, with a real growth rate of 4.4%, supporting housing demand despite a declining market[16] - The rental market is expected to grow, with rental housing currently accounting for 7.8% of urban housing stock, significantly lower than the 30% average in developed countries[20] Future Housing Demand Projections - By 2050, the estimated housing update demand is approximately 689,000 units, with market-driven solutions accounting for about 70% of this demand[31] - The total demand for commodity housing is projected to decrease by nearly half compared to 2024 levels, indicating a significant contraction in the market[31] Market Dynamics - The real estate market is experiencing structural oversupply, particularly in lower-tier cities, with vacancy rates exceeding 20% in some areas[21] - The competition among real estate companies is shifting from scale and speed to product quality and operational capabilities, necessitating a focus on customer needs and sustainable development[2][38]